Based upon the new results of Kossin et al. (GRL, 2007), it looks like the IPCC SPM just barely covered itself in its proclamations on observed hurricanes: There is observational evidence for an increase of
intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since about 1970, correlated with increases of tropical sea surface temperatures.
There is observational evidence for an increase
of intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since about 1970, correlated with increases in tropical SSTs.
That signal is translating into all sorts of events — droughts, intense rainfall,
more intense tropical cyclone activity, crop stress, heat waves, and so on.
The fact that two
very intense tropical cyclones occurred so soon after each other may mean that more frequent TCs will occur and to a higher intensity as a result of climate change, which may result in even more devastating effects.
If a noted climate scientist explains multi-year changes in ocean heat storage in terms of «tropical variablity» or «weather», I would suspect that any
particularly intense tropical cyclone (or season, or multiple seasons) would surely also fall into this category of «tropical variability».
During China's Yuan Dynasty (AD 1271 — 1368) Kublai Khan tried to invade Japan twice during an El Niño - like stage and
encountered intense tropical cyclones, which the Japanese called Kamikaze.
I think it is entirely consistent to say that these
incredibly intense tropical cyclones that we've seen — not just Pam that hit Vanuatu, but Haiyan, the one that hit the Philippines in the last winter --[are]... exactly this type of extreme cyclone predicted by the climate models to increase under climate change, under global warming, so I think it is entirely consistent to say that climate change has played a role.
Storm damage
from intense tropical cyclones is responsible for just under half the observed coral decline, crown of thorns starfish, which eat coral, have destroyed slightly over 40 %, with coral bleaching accounting for 10 %.
There are better than even odds that anthropogenic warming over the next century will lead to an increase in the occurrence of
very intense tropical cyclone in some basins — an increase that would be substantially larger in percentage terms than the 2 - 11 % increase in the average storm intensity.
Instead, the report focuses on problems that are likely to disproportionately hit developing countries: coastal inundation from rising sea levels, plummeting food production and associated malnutrition, unprecedented heat waves, increasing fresh water scarcity, more frequent and
intense tropical cyclones, and the loss of biodiversity.
September's massive assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) found only «low confidence» that
intense tropical cyclone activity had increased measurably since 1950, according to Science Insider.
However, the IPCC has found that, «more likely than not,» global warming will drive an increase in
intense tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific and North Atlantic by late in this century.
Intense tropical cyclone activity has increased since about 1970.
The goal of the ongoing CyMISS (Cyclone intensity Measurements from the ISS) project is to acquire image sequences of
intense tropical cyclones (TCs), such as hurricanes, -LSB-...]
The goal of the ongoing CyMISS (tropical Cyclone intensity Measurements from the ISS) project is to acquire image sequences of
intense tropical cyclones (TCs), such as -LSB-...]
Anthropogenic influence on either tropical or extratropical cyclones has not been detected, although the apparent increased frequency of
intense tropical cyclones, and its relationship to ocean warming, is suggestive of an anthropogenic influence.
When there's reason to expect tropical temperature trends to be amplified aloft, how come we nevertheless expect more
intense tropical cyclones?
From the results presented in Kossin et al. the «suggestions» of increases in
intense tropical cyclone activity in regions other than the Atlantic basin are not really so well supported, at least for the last 23 years.
(2) low to mid-latitude coastal regions are already facing a greater likelihood of very
intense tropical cyclones that are drawing energy from significantly warmer ocean waters.
After Thomas Knutson at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) published a paper in 2004 linking rising emissions with more
intense tropical cyclones, he was blocked by his superiors from speaking to the media.
There is very good evidence to support the conclusion that continued unmitigated climate change will lead to more
intense tropical cyclones, and there is even some evidence (see the Nature paper above) that on average cyclones are already getting stronger and more devastating.
A name of Chinese origin, meaning «great wind» applied to
the intense tropical cyclones which occur in the western Pacific Ocean.
There's been a string of
intense tropical cyclones in recent years, especially in the Pacific.
Very
intense tropical cyclones have a very pronounced eye and are very symmetrical, and there are graphical relationships between those images and direct wind measurements.
«Confidence that global warming is increasing
intense tropical cyclone activity has dropped since the [UN IPCC] panel's 2007 report»
Other regions experience drought or
intense tropical cyclones and floods.
The larger the difference, the more
intense the tropical cyclone is estimated to be.
The report cites Bangladesh, already threatened by frequent floods and extreme weather, as just one of more «potential impact hotspots» threatened by «extreme river floods, more
intense tropical cyclones, rising sea levels and very high temperatures».
Across North America, this type of change could lead to drier conditions across the southern tier of the United States and more frequent and more
intense tropical cyclones in the tropics.
There is observational evidence for an increase of
intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since about 1970, correlated with increases of tropical sea surface temperatures.