Analysis suggested the two main parties were neck and neck overall in terms
of national vote share - on 35 % each.
I don't expect major changes in
national vote share in 2020 necessarily but we could see UKIP still around 10 - 15 %, losing votes to the Tories in marginal seats but profiting from a post referendum backlash at the Tories expense in Essex, Kent and Lincolnshire etc and old labour areas like Sunderland, county Durham, Rotherham, Oldham etc which the Tories have abandoned.
@ohwilleke Not that even
real national vote share is a good measure of the winner in multiple voting areas with first past the post.
While many in the party were understandably disappointed that they did not live up to the promise of the surge, and saw their seat numbers reduced despite a
larger national vote share, it was nonetheless a creditable electoral performance.
Note that these figures are NOT compable to the
Equivalent National Vote shares that are calculated by the BBC, and later by Rallings & Thrasher, on local election night.
Based on the results, the BBC's projected
national vote share puts the Lib Dems on 16 % - an improvement on the latter days of the coalition government between 2013 and 2015, but lower than its estimated performance in last year's county council elections.
Based on the results, the gap in predicted
national vote share between the Conservatives and Labour has closed since the council elections last year.
From this, the BBC reported an estimate
of national vote share of 31 % for the Conservatives, 38 % for Labour and 16 % for the Liberal Democrats, meaning that if these results were replicated at the next general election, Labour would win an 83 seat majority.
In 2003, the Conservatives were estimated by the BBC to have led Labour by 5 % in terms of
projected national vote share, and the Lib Dems by 8 %.
It explains the focus on the SNP, a party that can't expect to take more than four per cent of
the national vote share but could end up seizing 50 - odd seats — and advancing its long - term agenda of breaking up Britain.
In 2010, though the Conservatives did not achieve
the national vote share they wanted, the party's targeting strategy meant it won 23 more Labour seats and 9 more Liberal Democrat seats than it would have done on a uniform swing.
However, before we consign the party to history, it's worth recounting that it did achieve
a national vote share in 2010 of around a fifth higher than the Clegg era poll average of 18 per cent.
It is important to note, however, that the «
national vote share» statistic is a project that includes both the seats elected in the current election and areas that did not hold an election this time around.
Falling support for the two largest parties, combined with the decline of the Liberal Democrats, makes it harder to predict the number of seats each party will have on the basis of
their national vote shares.
The governing Conservative Party were pushed into third place for the first time at any European Parliament election; winning just 23.3 % of
the national vote share and losing 7 seats to fall to 19 overall, one behind Labour and won the largest share of the vote in just 89 council areas and their highest vote was recorded in Elmbridge at 43.1 %.
For a start,
the national vote shares of both the Conservatives and Labour in last week's election was roughly equal, at around 37 per cent.
Moreover,
the national vote share among Hispanic voters for incumbent Barack Obama, who faced off against Republican Mitt Romney, was the highest seen by a Democratic candidate since 1996, when President Bill Clinton won 72 % of the Hispanic vote.
According to the BBC's projected
national vote share, the Conservative party is three points down on what it achieved in 2017's county council elections but, after eight years in government, it is better than its performance in any of the local elections held between 2012 and 2014 and in 2016.
The party's
national vote share was little changed at 7 % but its strategy of fighting the campaign as a series of individual byelections paid off, increasing the number of seats from eight to 12 — its first advance since 2005.
Professor Sir John Curtice said the party's 16 % projected
national vote share was an improvement on its performances between 2013 and 2015 - but well down on the 25 % or so it would achieve before it entered the coalition government in 2010.
That to me is the great unknown — it's a good bet UKIP are going to double or triple
their national vote share but it might be very uneven, with big votes in safe seats and more modest performances in marginal seats due to a stronger campaign from the other parties.
According to the BBC's projected
national vote share, the party is three points down on what it achieved in 2017's county council elections but, after eight years in government, it is better than its performance in any of the local elections held between 2012 and 2014 and in 2016.
Labour's projected
national vote share - at 35 % - is its best such performance since 2012 and puts it neck and neck with the Conservatives - but in 2013, 2014 and 2016 it was estimated to be narrowly ahead of the Tories.