Changes in the fuel mix play out in different ways across the country, reflecting regional variation in the economics of increases
in natural gas generation and renewable capacity.
However, if project pipelines evolve to include
more natural gas generation projects, care will be needed to ensure that this «bridge» fuel does not lock out renewables.
In contrast, during the first half of 2011, coal made up about 46 % of total generation
while natural gas generation grew to 17 % of total generation.
Natural gas generation produces about a third of the nation's electricity today and provides many of the same benefits as storage since these power plants are easy to switch on and off.
This
means natural gas generation can replace traditional coal and nuclear power that are no longer economic, as well as support intermittent renewable power.
The two estimates are mostly aligned on all generation estimates with the exception of small differences in wind and solar and large differences in
natural gas generation estimates.
Two - thirds of coal - generated electricity will be replaced by renewables — primarily wind power —
while natural gas generation will continue to provide firm base - load reliability.
«The rapidly dropping price of wind and solar, combined
with natural gas generation rather than coal, lead to solid economics, high reliability, lots of renewables, reduced emissions, and local control,» said Weaver.
«The decline in emissions during this period reflects shifts in the regional fuel mix,» the report states, «with
increasing natural gas generation offsetting decreases in coal and oil - fired generation.»
In the UK, carbon pricing — charging those who emit carbon dioxide — has become much stronger in recent years, making it more profitable for power companies to use
natural gas generation rather than coal.
Annual
natural gas generation surpassed coal generation for the last six months of 2015, and came within 1 percent of annual coal generation for the first time in U.S. history.
Meanwhile,
natural gas generation prices are increasing as carbon costs are included; nuclear generation prices are forecast to increase in Ontario to recover refurbishment costs; and new hydro mega-projects are seeing costs climb.
As renewables like wind and solar approach 30 per cent grid penetration, operators will need to increase the flexibility of their grids
using natural gas generation, manage up to 2...
The chart below shows how this inverse relationship can work: when monthly hydropower generation dips under 10 - year average levels,
monthly natural gas generation often rises above its 10 - year average in response.
According to EIA, utilities will increase
natural gas generation first, with reneawbles growth taking over to make up for retirements later in the compliance period.
The authors found that RPS policies supported 200,000 jobs in renewable energy - related businesses, and saved consumers $ 1.2 bn in reduced electricity prices and somewhere between $ 1.3 bn and $ 3.7 bn in reduced natural gas prices, because renewable sources
displaced natural gas generation.
Market -
driven natural gas generation growth is projected to continue, and emissions per megawatt of total electricity generation are projected to decline.
In 2016, coal - fired and nuclear power each contributed a bit over a third of the electricity, followed
by natural gas generation, which provided a little more than a quarter of the load.
But the construction of this plant in a region that has traditionally relied on, what used to be, less expensive diesel and
natural gas generation sources could well be a sign of things to come.
This risk factor pushes the «levelized» or all - in price of nuclear power from new units to 8.4 cents per kilowatt - hour, the MIT study concludes, versus 6.2 cents for coal - fired plants and 6.5 cents
for natural gas generation (if gas is priced at $ 7 per million British thermal units, or roughly 1,000 cubic feet of flowing gas).
By 2020, conventional coal plants must be phased out because of carbon cap restrictions, and in their place,
natural gas generation soars, providing half of all electric power.
The authors reject the idea that one expensive measure — the practice of «firming» wind energy by balancing it with
natural gas generation at every hour — is necessary in light of other low - cost options.
With power industry restructuring in the 1990s, the construction of new power plants was dominated by independent power producers who
favored natural gas generation due to short construction times and low capital costs.
Achieving that would include following the ISO -
NE natural gas generation plan, deploying more community microgrids, and increasing infrastructure hardening.
Natural gas generation during the winter of 2011/2012 (November through February, the latest electric power data available) was up 69 billion kilowatthours compared to the prior winter, despite the generally low demand for electricity.
The recent decline in the generation share of coal, and the concurrent rise in the share of natural gas, was mainly a market - driven response to lower natural gas prices that have
made natural gas generation more economically attractive.
In April 2012, the last time monthly
natural gas generation came close to surpassing coal - fired generation, spot prices for natural gas were near $ 2 per million Btu ($ / MMBtu) on a monthly average, before returning to about $ 3.50 / MMBtu in the last months of 2012.
Regulation of carbon emissions from the power sector under provisions of the Clean Air Act depends almost entirely on the Environmental Protection Agency's determination that
cheap natural gas generation is the «best available» alternative to coal power plants.
That could make wind competitive on price with
natural gas generation even in the Southeast, though flexible gas plants or other resources would still be necessary to integrate the capacity.
The large - scale deployment and use of renewables and
natural gas generation represents a significant change in the power flow, both in direction and magnitude, for the bulk power system (BPS) and could be «a significant planning and operational challenge,» concludes NERC's report, «Potential Reliability Impacts of EPA's Proposed Clean Power Plan, Phase 1.»