The combination of the extremely powerful 1982 - 2000 bull market accompanied by a senseless financial mania was the recipe for the
start of the secular bear market we envisioned.
What we are saying, is that confidence is still excessively high by traditional standards, valuations are still too expensive and therefore, investors need to be on alert for a
resumption of the secular bear trend.»
It is generally agreed on that the period without many 2 % down days in the past (the late 60's and 70's) was
part of a secular bear market.
Given the fact that crude oil is probably in the
middle of a secular bear market, this means USO will be probably never exceed its 2008 high @ 119.17.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.18 % per year over the
course of this secular bear market and to put this into perspective, a CD (Certificate of Deposit), made a more attractive investment than the «Blue Chip» stocks of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Now the reality is no one will consistently miss all the worst days — I'm the first guy to admit our 100 % Cash call the day before the flash crash was dumb luck — but you can avoid being long for
most of a secular bear market.
And does the current economic backdrop yet have the characteristics that usually coincide with the end
of secular bear markets?