The second lecture deals with the impacts of climate change (with a
focus on extreme events and sea - level rise) and the possibilities for holding global warming below 2 °C.
Of course, wealthy countries hold all of the sway in worldwide cost estimates, which tips the scales when we're looking for a «global»
perspective on extreme events.
He
banks on extreme events occurring more often than people expect, that is they forget to factor in all the remote possibilities.
There is a broad spectrum of views
on extreme events in the community — you've sampled some of those.
As the IPCC special
report on extreme events put it «There is low confidence in any observed long - term (i.e., 40 years or more) increases in tropical cyclone activity (i.e., intensity, frequency, duration), after accounting for past changes in observing capabilities.»
The public perception of violence in schools has been coloured by the media's focus
on extreme events involving shooting and kidnapping of schoolchildren.
From a statistical point of view a lot of information is lost by looking
only on extreme events and the statistical test will not be very strong i.e. the probability to reject a false null hypothesis will be small.
However, please be carefull not to put to much
weight on extreme events in the discussion on global warming and climate change even if extreme events may cause a lot of harm to many people world wide.
«The report that was released by the
IPCC on extreme events suggests that what we are seeing this year is not just an anomalous year, but a harbinger of things to come for at least a subset of the extreme events we are tallying, «said Jane Lubchenco, NOAA's administrator, during a press conference held here this week at the annual American Geophysical Union meeting.
-- «The 2012 report
on extreme events by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change examined the evidence for regional changes in soil moisture since 1950, and made the following assessment for western North America: «No overall or slight decrease in dryness since 1950; large variability; large drought of the 1930s dominates.»
I had been scheduled to testify before the House Science Committee next week in a
hearing on extreme events, but the gong show in Washingt...
As many impacts studies
focus on extreme events, the inference of small probabilities and the computation of their associated uncertainties quickly become challenging.
These have been assessed (based on simulations with sophisticated land models), the results of which are summarized by the IPCC (2012)
report on extreme events (for which this drought qualifies).
In this Climate Change lecture Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf deals with the impacts (with a focus
on extreme events and Sea - Level Rise) and the possibilities for holding Global Warming below 2 °C.
I thought his recent work by him and his team, for example,
on extreme events, showed great insight.
While the initial focus of Weather@home ANZ is
on extreme events that occurred in 2013, simulations will also be performed for other years, allowing scientists to assess better the possible role of climate change in such events as the Black Saturday bushfires in Australia in 2009, the record rainfall event in Golden Bay, New Zealand in 2011 and the record rainfall events in eastern Australia in 2010 and 2011.