The total energy
change over a solar cycle is quite small, which has led many to argue that solar variability has little impact on climate.
The full amplitude of solar cycle forcing is about 0.25 W / m2 [64], [71], but the reduction of solar forcing due to the present weak solar cycle is about half that magnitude as we illustrate below, so the energy imbalance measured during solar minimum (0.58 W / m2) suggests an average imbalance
over the solar cycle of about 0.7 W / m2.
The full amplitude of solar cycle forcing is about 0.25 W / m2 [64], [71], but the reduction of solar forcing due to the present weak solar cycle is about half that magnitude as we illustrate below, so the energy imbalance measured during solar minimum (0.58 W / m2) suggests an average
imbalance over the solar cycle of about 0.7 W / m2.
And please reread the solar - cloud connection of fig. 1 of Kristjansson,
where over a solar cycle (+ / - 0.5 W / m2 TOA), the observed change in low cloud cover is within + / - 2 %.
They also fail to mention that although the incoming solar radiation only varies by a couple of Watts per square
metre over a solar cycle the apparent smallness of the variation is a result of the small area subdivision and not any indication of a small total energy variation when one takes into account the number of square metres on the Earth's surface.
EUV values vary by 30 - 100 % across the
range over the solar cycle, and have the most potential to modulate atmospheric chemistry, size and temperature.
Previous studies have concluded that changes in solar
output over a solar cycle seem to be too small to have much direct impact at Earth's surface.
The other theme was the discussion of the spectral irradiance changes — specifically by how much the UV
changes over a solar cycle are larger in magnitude than the changes in the total irradiance.
We predict that for galaxies furthest from the readout registers, bias in the measurement of galaxy shapes, Delta (e), will increase at a rate of 2.65 + / - 0.02 x 10 ^ -LRB--4) per year at L2 for accumulated radiation exposure
averaged over the solar cycle.
The Scafetta and West article on possible increase in total solar irradiance (averaged
over a solar cycle) is to be found here.
Over a solar cycle the net energy density arriving at Earth appears to change by 1 watt per square meter out of an average of about 1,366.
He also notes that while the total solar irradiance (TSI) only varies by about.1 %
over a solar cycle, the solar UV varies by about 10 % and that secondary effects on cloud formation may vary up to 30 % over solar cycles.
MUV (200 - 300nm) is a solid ozone backstop but only varies 1 %
over the solar cycle but still relevant when comparing overall TSI (total solar irradiance) variance of 0.1 %.