These documents, while serving a useful purpose in providing guidelines for scenario use, did not fully address the science of
climate scenario development.
In scenario development, however, the employees are the ones developing the initial scenario based on a topic of the management's choice.
The long -
term scenario development initiative is based on forecasts that indicate that self - driving cars will achieve partial fleet penetration in a 30 - year timeframe.
... on a number of occasions the IPCC has been connected to [climate] model intercomparisons / harmonization and
scenario development which border on research.
A number of statistical downscaling techniques (see Section 13.4 and Chapter 10, Section 10.6, for definition) used in
scenario development employ Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) reanalysis data products as a source of upper air climate data (Kalnay et al., 1996).
Advances in
scenario development since the TAR address issues of consistency and comparability between global drivers of change, and regional scenarios required for CCIAV assessment (for reviews, see Berkhout et al., 2002; Carter et al., 2004; Parson et al., 2006).
For example, distinctions can be made between scenario needs for research in
climate scenario development and in the methods of conducting impact assessment (e.g., Woo, 1992; Mearns et al., 1997) and scenario needs for direct application in policy relevant impact and integrated assessments (e.g., Carter et al., 1996a; Smith et al., 1996; Hulme and Jenkins, 1998).
The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) is engaged
in scenario development for solar geoengineering.
The DDC also links to relevant data sets and information held outside the DDC, such as outputs produced from the new community - led process
of scenario development to support climate change research.
But
the Scenario Development is what I need a visual for.
As such, they jump - start
the scenario development across research communities from which uncertainties about socioeconomic, climate, and impact futures can be explored.
Currently, ICPAC runs WRF model for medium range weather forecasts, PRECIS model for climate chnage and
scenario development; and is in the process of setting up a Regional Spectral Model (RSM) for downscaling seasonal forecasts.
The remainder of this section assesses four aspects of climate
scenario development that originate from this concern about adequately representing uncertainty:
A treatment of climate
scenario development, in this specific sense, has been largely absent in the earlier IPCC Assessment Reports.
Furthermore, the report discusses the principle sources of uncertainty for the indicators and notes how monitoring and
scenario development can improve our understanding of climate change, its impacts and related vulnerabilities.
The document underlines the vital importance of a planning / scoping exercise to define clearly the needs for climate scenario information; describes a three - stage approach for climate
scenario development; highlights documentation as an integral part of scenario development and provides a list of freely accessible sources of models, tools, data and guidance materials.
Draw up an initial list and then fine - tune this to a group of five or six key people based on
your scenario development.