The model, which uses Canonical Correlation Analysis to describe linear relationships between predictors and predictands, is used in both Canada and the United States
for seasonal predictions of temperature and precipitation.
And even though Gabe began knowing, as he says, just about nothing, he went on to make some of the major advances in atmospheric dynamics, tropical cyclones and
seasonal prediction over the past couple of decades, including the now - famous modeling of a reduced zonal circulation in the equatorial Pacific.
They used the very advanced
ECMWF seasonal prediction model at high resolution and prescribed various sea - ice concentrations, ENSO states, as well SST and solar forcings.
While these relationships lay a path forward to
improving seasonal predictions of ice conditions in the region, developing an operational prediction scheme would require more timely acquisition of Bering Strait heat inflow data than is presently possible.
Now Gao et al. evaluate the ability of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's latest High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) to simulate this relationship on the basis of
retrospective seasonal predictions for the 25 - year period between 1990 and 2014.
Using the freely available
C3S seasonal prediction data the needs of a variety of users in different sectors are being met by prototype services that are currently becoming operational.
Zhang, J., R. Woodgate, and S. Mangiameli,
Towards seasonal prediction of the distribution and extent of cold bottom waters on the Bering Sea shelf, Deep - Sea Res.
This investigation will also identify origins of the potential predictability using composite analysis and large - scale teleconnections (Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation), providing the basis upon
which seasonal predictions can be developed.
A heat ridge in western North America this summer might be the closest thing to a slam dunk forecast in
seasonal prediction based on recent trends, the short and long term model forecasts.
As an example, do we really all agree with the idea of seamless prediction (see RealClimate article of October 9th) and how can we reconcile the fact that
seasonal predictions show more skill in the Tropics where climate scenarios show more spread?
The strengths and weaknesses of the modeling system need to be understood as a practical tradeoff: the Canadian models are relatively inexpensive computationally because of their moderate resolution, thus enabling their use in
operational seasonal prediction and for generating large ensembles of multidecadal simulations.
Observational needs for ocean forecasting,
seasonal prediction and coupled weather prediction, improving maritime safety and search and rescue, hazards prediction and weather impacts.
A new buzz - word is the concept of «seamless prediction», in which predictions ranging from nowcasting all the way to future scenarios are provided with a sliding time scale and that doesn't make distinction of incremental types such as «weather forecasts» «
seasonal predictions» and «climate scenarios».
The forecast scheme for the September sea ice extent is based on a methodology similar to one used for
the seasonal prediction of river streamflow.
Jorge Vazquez - Aguirre is in charge of the climatology working group at the National Meteorological Service of Mexico with operational duties related to climatic data,
seasonal prediction, drought monitoring and climate services.
Zhang, 5.1 (+ / - 0.6), Modeling
The seasonal prediction focuses not only on the total Arctic sea ice extent, but also on sea ice thickness field and ice edge location.
Thereby we assume that the spring atmospheric conditions, more precisely the greenhouse effect associated with the water vapor in the atmospheric column, are important for
the seasonal prediction of the September sea - ice extent.
With this service,
seasonal predictions, reanalyses and climate projections will be provided free of charge in the form of global and regional plots in real time.
At the end of the talk, the presenter listed the main barriers faced by users in the application of
seasonal predictions, which have a lot to do with the lack of communication and the difficulties to match the user expectations in terms of climate information.
The identification of these controls on annual peak flows in the region may be of use in the context of
seasonal prediction or future projected streamflow behaviour.
Zhang and Lindsay, 5.1 (± 0.4), Modeling
Our seasonal prediction focuses not only on the total Arctic sea ice extent and ice concentration field, but also on ice thickness field and ice edge location.
Ionita and Grosfeld (IUP Bremen Data), 4.25 (3.53 - 4.97), Statistical The forecast scheme for the September sea ice extent is based on a methodology similar to one used for
the seasonal prediction of river streamflow (Ionita et al., 2008, 2014).
Ionita and Grosfeld (NSIDC Data), 3.89 (3.23 - 4.56), Statistical The forecast scheme for the September sea ice extent is based on a methodology similar to one used for
the seasonal prediction of river streamflow (Ionita et al., 2008, 2014).
Zhang and Lindsay, 4.60 (4.00 - 5.20), Modeling
Our seasonal prediction focuses not only on the total Arctic sea ice extent, but also on sea ice thickness field and ice edge location.