The phrase
"secular bull" refers to a long-lasting period of rising prices or positive trends in the financial markets. It suggests that an extended period of growth, typically over multiple years, is expected in the economy or a particular asset class.
Full definition
In fact, some of the individual periods have provided strong returns, especially when they marked the beginning
of secular bull markets, like in 1942 and the early 1980's.
And as this chart shows, we may well have entered a
new secular bull market in 2013, which could bring huge gains over the next decade plus.
As you can see, the primary trend was up, which is typical
for secular bull markets.
The question is whether we entered a new long -
term secular bull market in 2010 or 2011 and how long will it last.
That's the only way to ensure you won't be watching from the sidelines when the
next secular bull market finally reveals itself.
As 2017 comes to a close a
long secular bull cycle for risk is firmly entrenched, but it may be interrupted in 2018 by a healthy cyclical correction.
But this time, the
super secular bull of the late 1990s ended nearly twice as high — it was a major bubble.
What I want you to take away from this chapter is the knowledge that there is extraordinary excitement in commodities, which are in the early stages of a
historic secular bull market.
Other than that, stocks trade
between secular bull markets, cyclical bull markets, cyclical bear markets, and sideways markets.
Recognizing the characteristics
of secular bull markets, and using a conservative approach to building your diversified portfolio, will help you invest with confidence.
His views are partially driven by the fact that in the beginning of the
last secular bull market, multiples were low and interest rates were high.
Generally speaking, all commodities have been in a long -
term secular bull market since the early 2000s.
Technical damage has been done on all but the biggest pictures as we watch
for secular bull market down leg 4 to be put in.
The
next secular bull market will be born of much more attractive valuations and opportunities than are available to investors here.
In summary, history shows us that the stock market moves in
long secular bull and bear market trends lasting 15 - 20 years on average.
The traditional buy and hold / modern portfolio theory works great during the roughly 17
year secular bull market, as anyone can make money when the overall trend is up.
As the underlying economy and baseline earnings level grew, the market slowly whittled its P / E back to levels associated with typical
secular bull ends and secular bear starts.
Clearly, silver underperformed gold during the first two years of each of the last three cyclical precious - metals bull markets that occurred
within secular bull markets.
«In the past, at the start of these
big secular bull markets, you have really cheap stocks... I'm not sure we ever got to that point,» he says.
The charts indicate not only how we far we are in the
current secular bull market which started around 2001, but it also puts it into perspective with data over the 20th century and even the centuries before.
In our final blog post of 2017, we argued that the 2018 investment «vintage» would likely be defined by history as marking a cyclical turning point within a much
larger secular bull market for global risk assets.
The strategy works well in flat or declining markets, but
in secular bull markets where stock prices rise rapidly, the products mentioned above can underperform.
«We are at the beginning stages now of a new bull market that's going to be driven now more by earnings growth and economic expansion as opposed to the nine - year -
old secular bull market that was driven by central bank intervention and political posturing,» the president and chief investment officer at Hennion & Walsh said on «Power Lunch.»
And: ``... [the] entire not - widely - followed gold - stock bull was based on the massive fundamental boost to gold - mining profits that gold's
own secular bull created.
Taking into consideration the fact that there is just two other circumstances when the debt / GDP NYSE margin had increased by about 30 basis points or more in a period of only three months — that happened when the ration had reached its two
major secular bull market highs — the likelihood is highly probable that the NYSE margin debt / US GDP, is once more at its peak of all time high of 2.87 %!
It is as though the 1980s /
1990s secular bull ran its course through the mid-1990s, then the party started and P / E more than doubled again.
The
average secular bull market lasted 21.2 years and produced a total return of 17.2 percent in nominal terms and 15.9 percent in real terms.
It is made better if you
separate secular bull markets from secular bear markets (as does Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research).
I decided to run some research that went back to 1950 and then back to 1928 which includes
multiple secular bull and bear markets to determine whether the «Sell in May and Go Away» strategy had an edge or not and, if so, how good an edge.
While this can be a good strategy in a sideways or bear market, this strategy does not work too well for the option writer in situations such
as secular bull markets involving rapidly rising stock values, or catalysts such as analyst upgrades, surprising positive earnings or unanticipated positive business news etc..
Phrases with «secular bull»