Sentences with phrase «subjective probability»

How exactly a consensus was reached regarding subjective probability distributions needs to be documented.

The three cases — low, medium and high — correspond approximately to subjective probability levels of 95, 50 and 5 per cent, respectively.

To properly conceptualize the future as an investor, you need to create different scenarios and assign subjective probabilities to them.

The International Council of Scientific Academies (InterAcademy Council, IAC) in its review of IPCC procedures recommended in 2010: «Where practical, formal expert elicitation procedures should be used to obtain subjective probabilities for key results».

J.P. van der Sluijs, «Quantification of uncertain quantities using subjective probability distributions» presentation at the IRAS - RIVM - INTARESE Expert Workshop on Ultrafine Particles and Health, Utrecht, 26 August 2008.

You want a strategy and an approach that is robust against this subjective probability distribution of the future.

Jim Cross, betting is a time honored technique for judging «degree of belief» or subjective probability.

For such events subjective or Bayesian probability may be the only applicable technique, and betting is as good a way as any to determine such a subjective probability.

We might say, in the statistical sense, that the chance of rolling snake eyes on a pair of dice is about 3 percent; subjective probabilities, by contrast, come into play whenever we make a personal judgment based on available evidence.

While these uncertainties prevent the establishment of a high - confidence, one - to - one linkage between atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and global mean temperature increase, probabilistic analyses can assign a subjective probability of exceeding certain temperature thresholds for given emissions scenarios or concentration targets (e.g., Meinshausen, 2005; Harvey, 2007).

«Not having broad enough spread» only makes sense if the ensemble of best guesses understates some variability that you'd get if you asked each team to contribute a few additional runs that were representative of their subjective probability distributions.

Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, results from a path analysis showed that, although parenting styles were not directly linked with college enrollment, they were indirectly associated with college enrollment via their prior associations with a number of variables, including young adults» subjective probability of completing college, time preferences, academic achievement, cognitive ability, and parental expectations.