But other parts of the fixed income market, particularly the more risky areas, are starting to show the stress of the prospect
of tighter monetary policy, she said.
The extent to which central banks around the world embark
on tighter monetary policy will be a key driver to the bond market's performance in the second half of the year.
However, 2018 brings the shift
toward tighter monetary policy (albeit very gradually), domestic economic imbalances, heightened political risks and above - average valuations across many asset classes.
The dollar's sell - off was also helped by investors betting on
tighter monetary policies by major central banks, bringing them in line with the Federal Reserve.
Even more troubling is the reality that weak market internals coupled
with tighter monetary policy as well as extraordinary overvaluation do not bode well for future price direction.
Expressing concern over the impact of loose credit on inflationary pressures, the BIS is now calling
for tighter monetary policy across the board.
It offered the usual cookie - cutter reasons that gold supposedly is not a good investment right now: lack of inflation,
tighter monetary policy in the US, and a «risk - on» market environment, just to mention a few.
Fears of rising inflation, along with worries
about tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, lifted rates and pressured stocks during the correction.
The notion is that by pursuing a
slightly tighter monetary policy, the central bank would take out insurance against the risk that the rise in asset prices is a bubble and that its busting would be disruptive.
«It's hard to imagine gold finding a footing,» Reeves writes, «as the dollar stays strong and
tight monetary policy keeps inflation well in hand.»
But markets have been roiled in recent weeks by concerns
over tighter monetary policy, talk of a potential trade war and a sell - off in technology stocks.
The last time investors
digested tighter monetary policy from the Fed in the summer of 2013, an event now recognized as the so - called «Taper Tantrum ``, the EMBIG index suffered a -5.25 percent return that year, performance very different from what we've seen this year and last, according to data from Bloomberg
A major feature in the world marketplace this week was the rout in global bond markets, on ideas of
tighter monetary policies coming from the world's major central banks and led by the U.S.
The economy is poised for a bumpy ride in 2020, and if enough policy mistakes pile up — overly restrictive fiscal policy and
excessively tight monetary policy — this could certainly create sufficient downdrafts to create a recession, or at the very least, a growth recession.
As recently as six months ago, many investors expected the dollar to continue its rally of the past few years based on stronger economic growth, via Trump's agenda items, and
tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.
A plausible argument can be made that the Fed should now deviate from its rule book, but the argument isn't that the economy is too weak to cope
with tighter monetary policy.
The dollar has appreciated 12 percent against the currencies of the United States» main trading partners since June on expectations
of tighter monetary policy and economists estimate it could shave 0.6 percentage point off growth this year.
Specifically, their identification of two main problems of that period —
overly tight monetary policy and allowing the collapse of the banking system — were instructive in the current environment.
Prior to Trump taking office, many prominent investors and analysts were calling for continuation of US dollar strength based
on tighter monetary policy and stronger economic growth.
It is possible however that with stronger confidence and economic activity the ECB may accelerate their plans from what we currently expect as hawkish members of the ECB push
for tighter monetary policy.
«We expect the stagnation trend to continue and potentially accelerate next year, exacerbated by lower oil prices,
tighter monetary policy and continued uncertainty on the geopolitical front,» noted Barclays economist Eldar Vakhitov in a recent report.
That said, economic growth cycles don't typically die of old age but are scuttled by higher taxes, unwise regulation, or — most often —
tighter monetary policy, which leads us to obstacle No. 2 for Trumponomics...
Tighter bank regulation (or even bank regulation period when compared to the Greenspan years) could be a form
a tighter monetary policy.
For example, if the economy is running above potential, creating inflationary pressures, while financial vulnerabilities are also building, then both considerations point to
tighter monetary policy.
Tight monetary policy was one mechanism by which Beijing sought to slow the pace of growth amid concerns that its response to the global financial crash — cheaper credit and a fiscal boost worth 12 % of GDP — had been excessive.
In this situation, it may be easier to implement
a tighter monetary policy through raising rates, than it would be to implement a looser policy using unconventional tools.
Empirical research shows that a buildup of household debt in the economy makes a financial crisis more probable, so we wanted to understand the costs and benefits of leaning against financial imbalances through
tighter monetary policy.
A pick - up in the ongoing rate of change of prices obviously would require
a tighter monetary policy setting (i.e. higher interest rates).
The broad set of Trump's fiscal measures and Republican legislative priorities should be supportive of a strong U.S. dollar, either by boosting growth and
tighter monetary policy — or by contributing to an improved trade balance (through looser regulation in the energy sector and / or border adjustments).
«The slowdown may not necessarily come in first half of 2019, but maybe the second half as there's a bigger drag from
tighter monetary policy and the fiscal stimulus wears off.»
Tighter monetary policy by itself creates a headwind to asset prices, but the net effect on asset prices and valuations could remain positive if it is offset by resilient growth.
Hints of
a tighter monetary policy from the ECB and anunlikely interest rate increase from the SNB confirm that both central banksare moving in opposite directions.
The dollar's sell - off was also helped by investors betting on
tighter monetary policies... Read more
The Euro rose on Wednesday on the thought that the EuropeanCentral Bank may be getting ready to implement
a tighter monetary policy.