Obviously this is because you're going from day to night; a natural cycle that doesn't contain useful information
about underlying warming or cooling.
If you take away the transient cooling in 1983 and 1992 caused by two major volcanic eruptions in the preceding years, the
remaining underlying warming trend in the bottom eight kilometers (almost five miles) of the atmosphere was 0.096 C (about 0.17 ° Fahrenheit) per decade between January 1979 and June 2017.
... In short, if CM3's internal variability is realistic, there is some chance that a rapid
underlying warming rate of 0.2 K decade − 1 could be ongoing as of 2015, but that this warming signal has been substantially masked (and may continue to be masked for even another decade or more) by an internal variability cooling episode.
Skeptical Science has posted a relevant piece, and video, tonight that strips away sources of known «noise» and shows a
steady underlying warming trend: «16 (more) years of global warming.»
``... We present a new analysis of millions of ocean temperature profiles designed to filter out local dynamical changes to give a more consistent view of
the underlying warming.
Natural, short - term fluctuations are occurring as usual but there have been no significant changes in
the underlying warming trend.
although the experts are divided on what mix of forces is in play — from winds to warm currents to
the underlying warming of the global climate from accumulating greenhouse gases.»
That the noise of natural variability can temporarily be strong enough to make
the underlying warming signal seem to «disappear» for short periods is nothing new.
«the experts are divided on what mix of forces is in play — from winds to warm currents to
the underlying warming of the global climate from accumulating greenhouse gases.»
Many think so, although the experts are divided on what mix of forces is in play — from winds to warm currents to
the underlying warming of the global climate from accumulating greenhouse gases.
Natural, short - term fluctuations are occurring as usual, but there have been no significant changes in
the underlying warming trend.
In the last couple of years,
the underlying warming is partially masked caused by a strong La Niña.
A Some scientists say the pause is illusory — if you strip out the effects of El Nino (when the South Pacific gets unpredictably warmer by several degrees), and La Nina (its cold counterpart),
the underlying warming trend remains.
However, again, the urban stations also show
an underlying warming trend, which substantially changes the context of the trends.
Trying to decode the flowery Monckton - speak, his first «point» appears to be that while the planet has been warming, and the science that Monckton agrees with says that adding more CO2 will cause more warming, Spencer is right to say that nobody knows if it is currently warming — i.e. at this very instant — because in the short term natural variation can temporarily mask
the underlying warming.
So the year - range chosen is one where natural cycles are most likely to be masking
any underlying warming.
In any case, defending Spencer's claim on the basis that it's possible that right at this very moment
the underlying warming is possibly being masked in the surface temperature record (since he talks about the «17 year pause», which of course doesn't exist when the oceans are taken into account) by natural variability and we won't know that until sometime down the track is damning Spencer by faint praise indeed.
Natural cycles superimposed on a linear warming trend can be mistaken for step changes, but
the underlying warming is caused by the external radiative forcing.
It is not a clear and tidy situation because the weather patterns change greatly from year to year and season to season despite
the underlying warming or cooling trend and local variations can hide the underlying trend unless one looks at the whole hemisphere.
«While they have been boosted by
the underlying warming trend, we don't have any strong evidence that the factors driving short - term Arctic variability will increase in a warming world.
However, it is possible to disentangle the effects of El Niño (and La Niña) events from
the underlying warming trend, and to predict how warm it would have been in the absence of El Niño.
Other changes include accounting for the past masking of
underlying warming by the cooling induced by 20th century volcanoes, and for emissions of soot, which can add to the warming effect.
Phrases with «underlying warming»