It is also robust to the use
of different climate models, different methods for estimating the responses to external forcing and variations in the analysis technique.
While this data set is large, the authors nevertheless warn that even more climate projections
by different climate models are needed to increase confidence in their result.
«This heating is represented in very different ways
in different climate models, and is one of the factors responsible for inconsistency of climate model results,» Jin said.
Caldeira and Myhrvold analyzed more than 50 climate simulations, which were performed using 20
different climate models for the Climate Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5).
Clouds are hard for models to get right and we know that
different climate models don't agree on how hot it's going to get, in large part because they don't agree on what clouds will do in the future.
Regional and local climate aspects are computed, based
on different climate models, statistical analyses, empirical data, and assumptions.
In the new work, Surabi Menon of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and colleagues used aerosol data collected from 46 ground stations in China to assess four
different climate modeling scenarios.
One of the exasperating aspects of the IPCC, and there are many, is that it pretends that climatology is a hard science but it, the IPCC, can not differentiate among 15
different climate models as to which ones are best.
We employed two
different climate model simulations: (1) the simulation of the NCAR CSM 1.4 coupled atmosphere - ocean General Circulation Model (GCM) analyzed by Ammann et al (2007) and (2) simulations of a simple Energy Balance Model (EBM).
Different reanalyses,
like different climate models, are not random, and while ensemble averaging reduces errors, it does not converge to «truth» as the number of models is increased.
If you want uncertainty due to the forcings, then take the span of Scenario A to C, if you want the uncertainty due to the climate model, you need to compare
different climate models which is a little beyond this post — but look at IPCC AR4 to get an idea.
«We also need to investigate the altitude and seasonal dependence of the changes, and to
analyse different climate models and warming scenarios to quantify the uncertainties.»
For the first time, researchers have been able to
combine different climate models using spatial statistics — to project future seasonal temperature changes in regions across North America.
«The fact that there is a distribution of future climate changes arises not only because of incomplete understanding of the climate system (e.g. the unknown value of the climate sensitivity,
different climate model responses, etc.), but also because of the inherent unpredictability of climate (e.g. unknowable future climate forcings and regional differences in the climate system response to a given forcing because of chaos).
Recent experiments with a number of
different climate models indicate that the inclusion of natural climate forcings such as volcanic eruptions, stratospheric ozone depletion, and solar variability can lead to a broad spectrum of simulated 20 - year surface and lower to mid-tropospheric temperature trends.
This result has appeared consistently in a number of more
recent different climate model configurations (Dai et al., 2001; Yonetani and Gordon, 2001).
Different climate models project different worldwide changes in net irrigation requirements, with estimated increases ranging from 1 to 3 % by the 2020s and 2 to 7 % by the 2070s.
If clouds are allowed to change (and changes in sea - ice are suppressed),
different climate models give answers ranging from 1.5 to 4.5 C for the warming due to doubling CO2.
-LSB-...] Standard conventions can reduce the risk of misrepresenting data -LSB-...] We now have
many different climate models, many different methods, and get a range of different results.
Numerous attempts to confirm these correlations based
on different climate models have shown that it is only possible if either the applied perturbations of direct solar radiative forcing are large (consistent with a direct solar radiative forcing from the present to Maunder minimum ΔFP − M ~ 0.6 − 0.8 W / m2) or if the amplification of a weak direct solar forcing is substantial.
Moreover, similar answers were found
in different climate models, suggesting that this is a very simple way of ascertaining some of the mechanisms that can explain climate system response to climate change.
They used two
different climate models, each with a different sensitivity to carbon dioxide, to project California's future under two scenarios: an optimistic one, in which we only double the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere — since the 19th century we've already increased it by about a third — and a pessimistic scenario, in which we more than triple CO2.
The team used the new scheme in five ice sheet models and forced them with climate warming conditions taken from two
different climate models.
Reporting in the Nov. 14 issue of the journal Science, University of California, Berkeley, climate scientist David Romps and his colleagues look at predictions of precipitation and cloud buoyancy in 11
different climate models and conclude that their combined effect will generate more frequent electrical discharges to the ground.
They then looked at 11
different climate models that predict precipitation and CAPE through this century and are archived in the most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5).
«The team determined the effect of this mismatch in 36
different climate models.
O'Gorman studied daily snowfall across the Northern Hemisphere using 20
different climate models, each of which projected climate change over a 100 - year period, given certain levels of greenhouse gas emissions.
O'Gorman analyzed daily snow amounts from simulations with 20
different climate models in the archive.
Method: The assessment started with 20
different climate models from research groups around the world.