One reason for this is that many impacts of climate change are expected to be proportional to the amount
of global average warming that occurs over the next several decades to centuries.
There is medium confidence that approximately 20 to 30 percent of species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases
in global average warming exceed 1.5 to 2.5 °C (relative to 1980 to 1999).
Global average warming over the 21st century «will substantially exceed even the warmest Holocene conditions, producing a climate state not previously experienced by human civilizations.»
The target, which represents the reduction that industrialized countries such as the United States will have to achieve to
keep global average warming from reaching catastrophic levels, has been criticized as being unachievable without ruining the nation's economy.
Three approaches were used to evaluate the outstanding «carbon budget» (the total amount of CO2 emissions compatible with a
given global average warming) for 1.5 °C: re-assessing the evidence provided by complex Earth System Models, new experiments with an intermediate - complexity model, and evaluating the implications of current ranges of uncertainty in climate system properties using a simple model.
In its annual analysis of trends in global carbon dioxide emissions, the Global Carbon Project (GCP) published three peer - reviewed articles identifying the challenges for society to keep
global average warming less than 2 °C above pre-industrial levels.
The report assesses the feasibility and likely benefits of achieving the most ambitious goal set by the Paris climate agreement — which is to hold
total global average warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
At a
maximum global average warming of 2 °C above the norm for most of human history, the Arctic could become technically ice - free once every three to five years.
This
greater global average warming in the troposphere compared to the surface (present in the models but not observed data) is most marked in the tropics.
[24] I believe that a 2.0 C
in global average warming, or even more, would be in balance beneficial, partly because most warming occurs where it is now cold and very little occurs in the tropics.
In this Hadley Centre model study Forest cover decreases most rapidly from +1 to +3 degrees Celsius
of global average warming, suggesting the Amazon tipping point slides along the temperature scale following an S - shaped curve.
The Japan Meteorological Agency said sea surface temperatures around Japan had been up by an average of 1.07 degrees Celsius in the past 100 years, which is double
the global average warming rate.
Since 1970, average annual temperatures in the Western U.S. have increased by 1.9 ° F, about twice the pace of
the global average warming.
Current models suggest ice mass losses increase with temperature more rapidly than gains due to increased precipitation and that the surface mass balance becomes negative (net ice loss) at
a global average warming (relative to pre-industrial values) in excess of 1.9 to 4.6 °C.