Sentences with phrase «seat projection»

Applying a more sophisticated seats projection methodology, which we term ANS (Adjusted National Swing), which allows for the differential impact of swing on different seats, the Political Forecasting Unit projects the following scenario if the election were held today:

Applying a more sophisticated seats projection methodology, which we term ANS (Adjusted National Swing), which allows for the differential impact of swing on different seats, the Political Forecasting Unit projects the following scenario if the election were held today: Conservatives: 258 seats Labour: 253 seats Liberal Democrat: 104 seats Others: 35 seats

Current seat projections suggest both Labour and the Conservatives could be around 30 to 40 seats short of an overall majority.

«For the exit poll seat projections to be right, Labour had to be wiped out in Scotland, the Liberal Democrats would have to be wiped out in their Tory marginals and we would have to done really badly in the English marginals,» the campaign aide recalled.

Assuming UKIP have fallen by just one point in Scotland and that Plaid Cymru and Green shares are unchanged, making the necessary adjustments to have uniform change in Scotland separately from England and Wales, yields the following seats projection.

We have divided them into two categories: simple (poll average plus uniform swing seats projection) and complex (anything more elaborate than the simple models, although they are not necessarily particularly complex).

Tory leader revives right - to - buy scheme for 1.3 m social tenants as latest Guardian seat projection has Labour and SNP on course for combined majority

* Throughout this blog, vote shares exclude Northern Ireland (in common with normal polling practice) but seat projections include the 18 seats allocated to the province.

Roger Scully's commentary is over on the Elections in Wales blog here and has an Assembly seat projection of 29 seats for Labour, 12 for the Tories, 10 Plaid, 8 UKIP and one for the Lib Dems.

The raw parliamentary arithmetic, based on current seat projections, would give a Labour - SNP informal pact a working majority of between 6 and 20.

The major caveat with the seat projections is that UKIP are shown at a point where they would almost certainly win a handful of regional list seats, but the Scotland Votes site doesn't include them, so it is unclear at whose expense they would come.

Seat projections are from Scotland Votes again.

Dr Balsom's seat projection is as follows:

His seat projection, based on the YouGov poll and giving Labour an overall majority of 6, is:

A seat projection from the average of recent polls would give them 48.

The seat projection is Labour 57, SNP 48, Cons 13, Green 6, LD 5.

Beyond that I just don't know what will happen and defer to the academics and gamblers when it comes to seat projections, and indeed when it comes to who on earth is going to form our next government.