Though some of her estimates were null, she found
positive test score effects for students attending public schools facing the strongest voucher competition.
These findings are consistent because the baseline levels of test scores tend to be lower for the lower income students, so a similar
absolute test score effect can be a greater percentage effect.
For example, the research evidence in a study I co-authored of Tulsa's universal preschool program suggests that
test score effects of pre-K for middle - income children are 90 % as large as those for low - income children.
For example, contrary to recent claims by Whitehurst, the Perry Preschool program shows this pattern, although with a somewhat slower deterioration
in test score effects.
The fading of
pre-K test score effects by third grade found in Tennessee and in the Head Start experiment occurs almost universally, and in particular occurs in programs such as Perry Preschool that show very large adult benefits.
Despite the vast majority of randomized control trials (RCTs) of private school choice showing significant, positive
test score effects for at least some subgroups of students, some of those gains have been modest and other effects have been null for at least some subgroups.
As a result of our findings of no consistent statistical association between the achievement and attainment effects in school choice studies we urged commentators and policymakers «to be more humble» in judging school choice programs or schools of choice based solely or primarily on
initial test score effects.
At the individual school level, with a few exceptions such as the large HCZ, there are less data on
school test score effects and attainment effects.
Urban charter schools have an incredible track record of increasing student achievement, while increasing school funding by as much as 10 % yields very
modest test score effects, and these effects come at a very high cost.
If we use Chetty's results, we find that the absolute
test score effects give us a better predictor of dollar effects on adult earnings.
These findings are consistent with the notion that teacher impacts on non-academic skills may help us understand the puzzle of
fading test score effects and the emergence of long - term impacts.
Using estimates from Chetty et al. on how 3rd grade test scores affect later adult earnings, and estimates from Bartik, Gormley and Adelstein of expected adult income of children from different income groups, I project that for low - income children, the 3rd
grade test score effects estimated by Duncan / Sojourner would be consistent with a lifetime increase in adult earnings of about 13 %.
In fact, these studies suggest that early test score gains of pre-K are a better predictor of long - term adult benefits than the medium -
run test score effects in elementary and middle school.
As argued in Bartik, Gormley, and Adelstein, the evidence from universal preschool programs such as Tulsa's suggest that there are
similar test score effects and future dollar earnings effects for children from different income groups.
Similarly, private school choice programs in Milwaukee and New York City were less impressive in
their test score effects than in later educational attainment, where private school students in both cities were significantly more likely to enroll in college.
But how would we expect
these test score effects to be reflected in later effects on adult earnings?
(These are
test score effects on four tests, which included vocabulary, letter - word identification, and two math tests.)