Sentences with phrase «track forecasts»

Over the past 20 years, significant advances have been made in the science of hurricane track forecasting.

GFDL and URI scientists have continued to transition the latest research advancements into the operational GFDL hurricane model, and this has resulted in a steady reduction in track forecast error since 1995.

The figure above shows a comparison of the 14 - season trend of the 3 - day track forecast errors for the GFDL hurricane model and the official forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center.

For example, the storm track forecasts for Hurricane Irene in 2011 were spot on, several days in advance.

AER scientists have developed techniques to process an ensemble of over fifty tropical cyclone track forecasts from all leading US and international hurricane modeling centers.

In the 25 years since Hurricane Andrew devastated southeastern Florida, the 3 - day track forecast for hurricanes has improved by 65 percent, she said.

Frank Marks, head of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division (HRD), who flew into Andrew to assess its strength as it approached Florida, agreed that as track forecasts improve, intensity and structure have to become the focus of research.

During the period from 2003 to 2008, the average storm track forecast had an error that was down to less than 200 miles at 72 hours, and less than 100 miles at 48 hours.

I do not have the data at my fingertips to prove it, but my guess is that such case - to - case (and even day - to - day) variations in inherent predictability outweigh any systematic improvements in track forecasting since 2005.

The figure above compares the average track forecast errors in the Atlantic Ocean basin during the past six hurricane seasons for the most reliable computer models available to the National Hurricane Center during this period.

Both Standard & Poor's and Thomson Financial track these forecasts and create an aggregate «bottoms up» number.

For example, a storm embedded in a confluent large - scale flow (i.e. one whose streamlines tend to converge) will generally have less directional track forecast uncertainty, though the timing of the progress of the storm along its track may suffer.

1:01 p.m. Various updates below With the tropical storm that will soon be Hurricane Isaac heading in the general direction of New Orleans seven years (possibly to the day) after Hurricane Katrina topped the flood protections there, I looked back at the archived track forecasts for the 2005 storm and posted the link on Twitter and Facebook.

Firstly here's the latest National Hurricane Center track forecast:

The GFDL hurricane model had the most reliable track guidance and smallest track forecast errors through 3 days lead time and was near the top of the pack at 4 - and 5 - day lead time.

Notice the track shifted east of the actual track on Wednesday, August 24, so the skill of the three - day track forecast actually regressed from the four - day forecast.

Having said all of that, NHC track forecasts have come a long way since 1990, improving by over 50 %.

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One, the Hurricane Weather Research Forecast model includes better resolution of storms, advanced ways of feeding data into the model and more accurate atmospheric physics, all of which could improve intensity forecasts for storms by up to 10 percent and track forecasts by up to 7 percent, Erickson said.

Since becoming operational in 1995, the GFDL hurricane model has played a major role in improving hurricane prediction, resulting in a significant reduction in track forecast error.

Has track forecasting improved (note the difference in cone area / width in the two hurricane forecast archives below) or are these fundamentally different tropical systems facing different levels of complex conditions?

In fact, the deficit track forecast by the IMF is closer to the deficit track forecast by the PBO — a forecast that the Minister of Finance stated is not credible.

Family film «Strange Magic» fell short of its $ 10 - million tracking forecast, launching in seventh with $ 5.5 - million.

I agree with Kerry that inherent (un) predictability outweighs advances in track forecasting in trying to compare Isaac to Katrina, but the advances in track forecasting are real.

In comparing the track forecasts for Isaac with that for Katrina, he noted how much of what is called the «cone of uncertainty» — the wide area over which the track could range — had shrunk in comparing the forecasts seven years apart.

Why not include the estimated categories of the damage to the track forecasts?

In particular, the track forecasts of tropical cyclones were improved, which has been confirmed by tropical cyclone centres.

The track forecasts from various computer models are packed tightly together, signifying high confidence in the storm's course.

Here is the track forecast map from the National Hurricane Center:

According to NOAA, during the past 15 years, hurricane track forecasts have improved by 50 percent, while the accuracy of intensity forecasts have not budged.

Marks said that 48 - hour track forecast errors today are the same as 24 - hour track forecast errors 10 years ago, whereas there has only been slight improvement in 48 - hour intensity forecasts during the past two decades.

«We keep getting better and better at the track forecasts» said James L. Franklin, chief of the hurricane specialist unit at NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami.

But Franklin said that in contrast to track forecasts, predicting storm intensity requires knowing lots of small - scale details that computer models have trouble capturing, from the dynamics of a storm's structure to the characteristics of air masses being pulled into a storm's circulation.

Because answering such questions involves dealing with large - scale atmospheric features that today's generation of computer models are adept at simulating, track forecasts have continued to be refined.

James Franklin, chief of forecast operations at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, said forecasters, at least, are ready for this season, having made significant improvements in hurricane - track forecasts in recent years.

My main point point though is that hurricane track forecasts are not characteristically perfect four days out and NOAA should be cautious in how it spins a specific forecast at that range.

NHC director Bill Read stated in a interview this week that had Hurricane Irene come along before the recent improvements in track forecasting, hurricane warnings would have been issued for the entire Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina coasts.

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