This thesis presents the results of several general circulation model simulations aimed at studying the effect of
ocean circulation changes when they occur in conjunction with increased atmospheric trace gas concentrations.
Although considerable progress has been made, further improvements to the historical record are still needed, particularly in accounting
for ocean circulation changes.
Nevertheless, the risk of
triggering ocean circulation changes as a result of global warming can not be ruled out at present (which is why you use the word «probably»), and it needs to be studied and discussed.
Ironically, Broecker's own later work on
Atlantic ocean circulation changes showed that Greenland is likely even less representative of global temperature changes than most other places on Earth, it being strongly affected by variability in ocean heat transport (see our recent post on the Younger Dryas, or Broecker's latest book The Great Ocean Conveyor).
«The study demonstrates a robust century - scale link
between ocean circulation changes in the Atlantic basin and rainfall in the adjacent continents during the past 4,000 years,» said UTIG Director Terry Quinn, a co-author on the study.
The available data are insufficient to say if the changes in O2 are caused by natural variability or are trends that are likely to persist in the future, but they do indicate that large - scale changes in ocean physics influence natural biogeochemical cycles, and thus the cycles of O2 and CO2 are likely to undergo changes
if ocean circulation changes persist in the future.
However, current understanding suggests that, unless
substantial ocean circulation changes occur, plankton growth remains roughly unchanged because it is limited mostly by environmental factors, such as nutrients and light, and not by the availability of inorganic carbon it does not contribute significantly to the ocean uptake of anthropogenic CO2.
Large - scale
ocean circulation changes beyond the 21st century can not be reliably assessed because of uncertainties in the meltwater supply from the Greenland ice sheet and model response to the warming.
Scientists from the Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) have provided new evidence that
ocean circulation changes lagged behind, and were not the cause of, major climate changes at the beginning and end of the last ice age (short intervals known as glacial boundaries), according to a study published in the March 2005 issue of Science magazine.
We know, however, that rapid warming of the planet increases the risk of crossing climatic points of no return, possibly setting in motion large -
scale ocean circulation changes, the loss of major ice sheets, and species extinctions.
McCarthy works on RAPID, a study led by the University of Arizona that highlights the role
of ocean circulation changes that cause extreme sea level jumps along the northeastern coast of the United States.
But this is natural, due to
ocean circulation changes and other factors.
During El Nino events
the ocean circulation changes in such a way as to cause a large and temporary positive sea surface temperature anomaly in the tropical Pacific.
If DO events are due to
ocean circulation changes, what triggers these ocean circulation changes?
In a recent technical comment, Zhang et al. show that ocean dynamics play a central role in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and the previous claims that «the AMO is a thermodynamic response of the ocean mixed layer to stochastic atmospheric forcing, and
ocean circulation changes have no role in causing the AMO» are not justified.
The activists say warmer weather will «possibly» set in motion «large - scale
ocean circulation changes.»
In the case of
the oceans the circulation changes are very slow.
But this is natural, due to
ocean circulation changes and other factors.
The second implication seems to be that a step change in Earth system sensitivity (about double), consequent to
ocean circulation changes, can be expected pretty much any time now, or perhaps has already happened if there has been an irreversible commitment to the circulation changes.
Sheth, S., 1999:
Ocean Circulation Changes and Greenhouse Warming Predicted by Coupled GCMs.
Furthermore, by homogenizing the entire ocean into a single metric, they miss important nuances of local and regional scale redox changes that might reflect the activity of climatic feedback processes, such as weathering,
ocean circulation change, or temperature change.