In a way we are: it's like someone plucked a value off a graph from 2030 and stuck it on a graph
of present temperatures.
Potential for added value
in present temperature simulated by high - resolution nested RCMs in climate and in the climate change signal.
Previous modeling studies find that GHG make up roughly 50 % of the total LGM to
present temperature response (see e.g. Broccoli & Manabe), the other part being albedo etc that respond to the seasonal cycle of irradiance.
They're also highly confident that if the global surface temperature increases by more than 2 degrees Celsius
over present temperatures we could see «a nearly ice - free Arctic Ocean in late summer.»
In the lowest greenhouse gas emissions scenario for the future (where warming stops about 1 °C
past present temperatures), the world's mountain glaciers lose just over 40 percent of their mass by 2100.
[Response: For anything
near present temperatures, WV increases at roughly 7 % per ºC and the feedback is tied to this — hence the size of the feedback doesn't vary a lot the absolute global mean temperature.
Ultimately, we show that
present temperature abnormalities are given undue weight and lead to an overestimation of the frequency of similar past events, thereby increasing belief in and concern for global warming.
Also, the difference is almost entirely because
NOAA presents their temperature anomalies relative to a 1901 - 2000 baseline, while HadCRUT4 presents theirs relative to a 1961 - 1990 baseline.
Linear - fit to temperature since 1970
yields present temperature of 1.06 °C, which is perhaps our best estimate of warming since the preindustrial period.
There are no reliable past or
present temperature data, it is just that some of them are much worse than others; hence there are no the «best», perhaps only the Cautiously Estimated Temperature data.
These ratings are on the product hangtags and the SwaddleDesigns website to help parents make educated decisions on which wearable blanket is appropriate for
the present temperature.
At
its present temperature Earth is on a flat portion of its fast - feedback climate sensitivity curve.
the present temperature was NOT arrived at via a long - term trend.»
Hence, the cooler than
present temperatures in the MWP is consistent with higher than present sea level.
Present temperatures are on the left.
It was clearly warmer than
present temperatures, thus negating claims that 20th century temperatures were unprecedented.
Reconstructions indicate that during the Pliocene there were prolonged (~ 200,000 years) warm intervals, when spring and summer sea surface temperatures were between 2 and 6 oC above modern levels, with a general background theme of warmer - than -
present temperatures.
Climate alarmists conveniently overlook evidence during the Holocene optimum where there were extended periods of temperatures exceeding the averages by 2 to 3 degrees Celsius above
present temperatures.
But the bottom line is that without some other explanation, given the significant increases in CO2 since the beginning of the Industrial era, most of
the present temperature rise since 1800 has to be attributed to man.
Even more primitive than Callendar is the more recent work of Akasofu (2010, 2013), who has looked at the simplest non-trivial fit to the data: he predicted
the present temperature stasis and predicts that it will last another 15 years.
In the climate debate, the temperatures of the past are used to determine if
the present temperatures are unique and alarming.
There are no reliable past or
present temperature data, it is just that some of them are much worse than others