A measure of the difference in sea level pressure between the western (e.g., Darwin, Australia) and central / eastern (e.g., Tahiti) equatorial Pacific, representative of the east - west
changes in atmospheric circulation associated with the El Nino / Southern Oscillation phenomenon.
In models at least, this kind of response would be most directly related to increases in stratification due to surface warming, as I understand it, and not directly to the kind
of change in atmospheric circulation discussed in Dian's paper.
«The research suggests that once temperature rises above some threshold, adverse weather conditions could develop relatively abruptly, with persistent
changes in the atmospheric circulation causing drops in some regions of 5 - 10 degrees Fahrenheit in a single decade.»
«We postulate that these halogen - rich eruptions created a stratospheric ozone hole over Antarctica that, analogous to the modern ozone hole, led to large -
scale changes in atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate throughout the Southern Hemisphere,» he added.
The prolonged drought in the Sahel (see Figure 1), which was pronounced from the late 1960s to the late 1980s, continues although it is not quite as intense as it was; it has been linked,
through changes in atmospheric circulation, to changes in tropical sea surface temperature patterns in the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic Basins.
When the Arctic sea ice melts, then the change in albedo will be so great that it could cause a
radical change in the atmospheric circulation before it settles into a new regime where there is adequate cloud cover to produce climate stability.
Defects spun off from the chaotic process that cause global,
persistent changes in atmospheric circulation on a local basis (e.g. blocking highs that sit out on the Atlantic for half a year) that have a huge impact on annual or monthly temperatures and rainfall and so on.
I think it is really important to make that distinction - that there are a number of factors that influence the extent of Arctic sea ice, some of them of course associated with changes in the radiative forcing from the atmosphere, as a result of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols, but
also changes in the atmospheric circulation and also the advection of heat into or out of the Arctic by the ocean circulation.
Although it would seem that increasing temperatures and ice - ocean feedbacks leave the Arctic climate more susceptible to natural atmospheric variability, it is unclear to what extent global climate change
influences changes in the atmospheric circulation.
Whether caused by CO2 - driven global warming, observed
natural changes in atmospheric circulation due to the Arctic Oscillation, or changes in the volume of intruding waters associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the extent of summer sea ice summer has fluctuated greatly over decades as seen in Figure 5 (from Jay 2012.)
This slower warming of the tropical Pacific
induces changes in the atmospheric circulation that can be seen in the reanalyses, but two different reanalysis products that incorporate different amounts of satellite data in different ways produce conflicting estimates of the change in circulation.
Long -
term changes in atmospheric circulation have resulted in an increased amount of perennial sea ice being exported through Fram Strait rather than being recirculated (e.g., Beaufort Gyre); this was what set up the 2007 record September minimum.
Lamont's Ryan Abernathey and Richard Seager are studying how changes in the ocean cause sea surface temperature to vary, and how these anomalies
drive changes in atmospheric circulation to create extreme weather events.
Whether the large - scale thermodynamic environment and atmospheric static stability (often measured by Convective Available Potential Energy, CAPE) becomes more favourable for tropical storms depends on
how changes in atmospheric circulation, especially subsidence, affect the static stability of the atmosphere, and how the wind shear changes.
Hoerling and Kumar (2003) attributed the drought to
changes in atmospheric circulation associated with warming of the western tropical Pacific and Indian oceans, while McCabe et al. (2004) have produced evidence suggesting that the confluence of both Pacific decadal and Atlantic multi-decadal fluctuations is involved.
The strong inverse relationship between El Niño events and Indian monsoon rainfalls that prevailed for more than a century prior to about 1976 has weakened substantially since then (Kumar et al., 1999; Krishnamurthy and Goswami, 2000; Sarkar et al., 2004), involving large -
scale changes in atmospheric circulation.
Nevertheless, even relatively
steady changes in the atmospheric circulation may prove important for understanding past and future abrupt climate change if such changes are coincident with large horizontal gradients in surface climate.
In the northern winter of 2004 to 2005, the weak El Niño was part of a
radical change in atmospheric circulation and storm track across the USA, ameliorating the drought in the Southwest, although lakes remain low.