For us though, based on over two decades of data, the sweet
spot for mean reversion equity trading tends to be 3 - 7 days.
But I've had some success in backtesting and in live trading in applying a daily Advance / Decline filter on my breakout setups on stocks, and this could theoretically work in
reverse for mean reversion setups.
Does the stop become beneficical (reduce max drawdown)
for mean reversion when the stop is placed k x MAE away from entry price?
But long - term investors who can be patient can
wait for this mean reversion, while they may lag behind buy - and - holders for years at a time, will eventually come out ahead by the end of the game.
The last part of the paper discusses two possible
explanations for mean reversion: time varying required returns, and slowly - decaying «price fads» that cause stock prices to deviate from fundamental values for periods of several years.
Two economists known for research into both market behavior and individual decision - making, Werner De Bondt and Richard Thaler, theorized that it is this overreaction to meaningless price movements that creates the
conditions for mean reversion.
De Bondt and Thaler's findings stand the conventional wisdom on its head and show compelling
evidence for mean reversion in stocks in a variety of forms.
That said, the risk premium factor shows that the largest gains tend to come in the southwest quadrant: low equity valuations and high Baa bond yields, which is a perfect set -
up for mean reversion.
Subtract 29 basis points for the total return, and add back 12 basis
points for mean reversion, and that would leave us at 4.41 %.
There may be, on average across sampled gurus, a net trend following aspect that does not adequately
account for mean reversion in stock market returns.
PIMCO wrote that
positioning for mean reversion will be a less compelling investment theme in a world where realized returns cluster nearer the tails and away from the mean.
The research we present in this article provides evidence that valuations are a key
reason for this mean reversion: underperforming managers tend to hold cheaper assets, with cheaper factor loadings, setting them up for good subsequent performance, whereas recently winning managers tend to hold more - expensive assets.
This means that materials could be
ripe for mean reversion, representing one of the most attractive entry points in recent memory.
For mean reversion to occur, either the gold price needs to appreciate or share prices need to fall.
For mean reversion, the two best rankings I have found are 100 - day Historical Volatility (ranking from high to low) and Rate of Return (3,5,7 day) ranking from most sold off to least.
If relative valuation, and the implication it has
for mean reversion, is useful for stock selection and for asset allocation, why would it not matter in choosing factor tilts and equity strategies?
I have been using and promoting RSI2 since 2004
for mean reversion trading.