Sentences with phrase «forcing scenarios»

Additionally they will estimate the likelihood of these changes occurring given different forcing scenarios and how sensitive estimates of these changes are to the way each model is formulated.

So which forcing scenario came closest to the real world?

So which forcing scenario came closest to the real world?

Understanding climate sensitivity is critical to projecting climate change in response to a given forcing scenario.

Likewise, comparisons can be made of multiple possible future forcing scenarios.

[110] The evidence at trial clearly established that use - of - force scenarios triggered the stress response in police officers.

The temporal response of the real world to the human - made climate forcing could be more complex than suggested by a simple response function calculation, especially if rapid emissions growth continues, yielding an unprecedented climate forcing scenario.

Climate projections are distinguished from a href = «c.html #climate - predictions» > climate predictions in order to emphasize that climate projections depend upon the emission / concentration / radiative forcing scenario used, which are based on assumptions concerning, for example, future socioeconomic and technological developments that may or may not be realized and are therefore subject to substantial uncertainty.

The resulting information is also used to calibrate simpler models which may then be employed to investigate a broad range of forcing scenarios as is done in Section 9.3.3.

Since there are some differences in the climate changes simulated by various models even if the same forcing scenario is used, the models are compared to assess the uncertainties in the responses.

«We find that model versions that reproduce observed surface temperature changes over the past 50 years show global - mean temperature increases of 1.4 — 3 K by 2050, relative to 1961 — 1990, under a mid-range forcing scenario.»

We have many studies presenting the projections from GCMs under various forcing scenarios where unforced variability is simulated, and we have a few studies (not many I think) which have a model reproduce the * actual * forcings and unforced variability and see how well the output matches observations (a recent one by Yu Kosaka and Shang - Ping Xie being a case in point).

Leif, I would appreciate your judgment of whether the solar forcing scenario used in the CMIP5 runs for the IPCC represent our current best guess and an appropriate assessment of the uncertainty.

Another possible forcings scenario has been discussed on energy forums, namely that all fossil fuels including coal will peak by 2025.

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Based on results from large ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model, we show that internal variability alone leads to a prediction uncertainty of about two decades, while scenario uncertainty between the strong (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5) and medium (RCP4.5) forcing scenarios [possible paths for greenhouse gas emissions] adds at least another 5 years.

Also, we use several extreme forcing scenarios.

Once the models are spun up, we will run them with 20th century forcings, and a variety of idealised future CO2 forcing scenarios to examine how the AMOC responds to changing CO2.

With the new climate modelling experiments (CMIP5) that exploit updated greenhouse gas forcing scenarios at our disposal, we will maintain and improve our ability to provide relevant future projections.

They respond in similar ways once the different forcing scenarios start to apply, but I presume they are all being forced with historical data from 1850 to now in their «spin ups» — there must be a lot of differences in how the models treat the present state?

I will explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes, illustrated by a particular case study.

An ensemble consists of a number of simulations undertaken with the same forcing scenario, so that the forced change Tf is the same for each, but where small perturbations to remote initial conditions result in internally generated climate variability that is different for each ensemble member.

In April 2012, DJ Rowlands, from Oxford, published an article in Nature Geoscience that concluded, in part: «We find that model versions that reproduce observed surface temperature changes over the past 50 years show global - mean temperature increases of 1.4 - 3 K by 2050, relative to 1961 - 1990, under a mid-range forcing scenario».

Not taking the AMO into account in predictions of future warming under various forcing scenarios may run the risk of overestimating the warming for the next two to three decades, when the AMO is likely in its down phase.

Their abstract says «energy budget calculations show that poleward atmospheric energy transport increases more in solar forcing compared to equivalent CO2 forcing simulations, which is in line with the identified strong increase in large - scale precipitation in solar forcing scenarios.»

That empirical aerosol forcing assessment for the past decade is consistent with the climate forcings scenario (Fig. 8) that we use for the past century in the present and prior studies [64], [190].

Propose to adopt what appears to be a plausible but low - end scenario of future radiative forcing, whereas Houghton et al. (2001) indicates that even stronger radiative forcing scenarios than we use in KT04 are also plausible.

[Response: The forcing scenarios are described in the original paper (linked to above) and are graphed for your convenience above.