"Scientific uncertainty" refers to the lack of complete clarity or certainty in the results or outcomes of scientific research or explanations. It means that scientists may not have all the answers or full confidence in their findings, as there may be various factors or possibilities that are still not fully understood or explored.
Full definition
This post argues that ethics requires acknowledging the links between tornadoes and climate change despite
scientific uncertainties about increased frequency and intensity of tornadoes in a warming world.
I intend to emphasize that there really is no longer any serious
scientific uncertainty as to whether global temperatures are rising and what is causing that increase in temperature.
This is particularly true on issues where waiting to
resolve scientific uncertainty makes the problem worse or waiting makes the problem harder to solve, clear attributes of climate change.
In it he urged members to focus on
scientific uncertainty rather than use arguments popular among climate deniers, such as the effect of solar activity on the climate.
He seems to suggest, however, that there is
enough scientific uncertainty that we can't even claim that the impacts of climate change will cause harm.
But the
many scientific uncertainties, and the sheer complexity of climate, made room for limitless debate over what actions, if any, governments should take.
In these contexts, people are likely to also encounter arguments by those opposed to policy action who misleadingly
emphasize scientific uncertainty or who exaggerate the economic costs of action.
Scientists should clearly communicate the concept of
scientific uncertainty for a public audience to avoid misinterpretations of scientific confidence.
The IPCC [the United Nations» Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] took a shortcut on the actual
scientific uncertainty analysis on a lot of the issues, particularly the temperature records.
New research using data from NASA's Van Allen Probes mission helps resolve decades of
scientific uncertainty over the origin of ultra-relativistic electrons in Earth's near space environment, and is likely to influence our understanding of planetary magnetospheres throughout the universe.
Exaggerating
scientific uncertainty around the climate change threat was one of the planned tactics of the oil industry's Global Climate Coalition formed in the 1980s to push back against the Kyoto Protocol, and continued to be a recurrent theme at Exxon headquarters.
For example, William O'Keefe, former Vice President of the American Petroleum Institute and Chairman of the GCC, stated on June 28, 1996 that «we could wait 20 to 25 years to take action
until scientific uncertainty is lessened.»
«Because the 21 individual reports are planned to address
scientific uncertainties associated with climate change and other technical subjects and are to be issued over a period of three or more years, it may be difficult for the Congress and others to use this information effectively as the basis for making decisions on climate policy,» according to the GAO.
The decision analytic framework of
reducing scientific uncertainty in support of optimal decision making strategies regarding CO2 mitigation has arguably resulted in unwarranted high confidence in future projections and relative neglect of natural climate variability and the possibility of black swans and dragon kings.
Stay tuned for a forthcoming post (maybe later today) on the ethics of communicating scientific uncertainty
While
important scientific uncertainties remain as to which particular impacts will be experienced where, no uncertainties are known that could make the impacts of climate change inconsequential.