In other words, we do not actually know if there has been any significant
sea level trends over the last century!
This adjustment of tide gauge data to yield a
rising sea level trend where none exists is not occasional or episodic.
Is this period long enough to assess whether the
current sea level trend is unusual, and to what extent the decline is caused by humans?
The variations in
sea level trends seen here primarily reflect differences in rates and sources of vertical land motion.
The biggest difficulty in using tidal gauges to study
global sea level trends is separating local changes from global changes.
The east - west contrast
of sea level trends in the Pacific observed since the early 1990s can not be satisfactorily accounted for by climate models, nor yet definitively attributed either to unforced variability or forced climate change.
Projected number of nuisance flood days for May 2015 - April 2016, based
on sea level trends from 1950 - 2013 combined with influence of El Niño (for locations where historical observations suggests El Niño has an influence on tidal flooding frequency).
«[B] y making use of 21 CMIP5 coupled climate models, we study the contribution of external forcing to the Pacific Ocean regional sea level variability over 1993 — 2013, and show that according to climate models, externally forced and thereby the anthropogenic sea level fingerprint on
regional sea level trends in the tropical Pacific is still too small to be observable by satellite altimetry.»
The spatial distribution of the altimeter
sea level trends during 1993 - 2017 shows large - scale variations, with some regions such as the western tropical Pacific Ocean experiencing up to +8 mm / year.
Table 11.9 of the TAR listed several estimates for global and regional 20th - century
sea level trends based on the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) data set (Woodworth and Player, 2003).
Stations illustrated with
positive sea level trends (yellow - to - red) are experiencing both global sea level rise, and lowering or sinking of the local land, causing an apparently exaggerated rate of relative sea level rise.
From all appearances, the data - adjusters at PSMSL are attempting to «correct» the sea level rise data that do not support the conceptualization of a rapidly - rising
sea level trend in response to rising human CO2 emissions.
Several other satellite altimeters have also been launched, and the data from these have been used to estimate global mean
sea level trends since 1993.
«Furthermore, regressed CMIP5 MME - based sea level spatial trend pattern in the tropical Pacific over the altimetry period do not display any positive
sea level trend values that are comparable to the altimetry based sea level signal after having removed the contribution of the decadal natural climate mode.
The simulation indicates that the longer the time span covered by the spatial EOFs, the closer to the reference the reconstructed
thermosteric sea level trends.
Finds that the minimum
anthropogenic sea level trend (MASLT) contributes to the observed sea level rise more than 50 % in New York, Baltimore, San Diego, Marseille, and Mumbai
At the risk of oversimplifying, the effects of groundwater storage can be differentiated between shallow - aquifer effects that modulate global sea level on year to year and decade to decade timeframes, versus deep aquifer effects that
modulate sea level trends over centuries and millennia.
By the way, in an earlier paper, Hansen et al., 2011 (Abstract) had used geological measurements from coastlines to
calculate sea level trends back to the 12th century for the same region.
Finally, we project the number of nuisance flood days that we would expect from May 2015 - April 2016 based on
sea level trends trends alone and with the added influence of El Niño.
Since 1993, an even
higher sea level trend of about 2.8 mm / yr has been measured from the TOPEX / POSEIDON satellite altimeter.
If rising
sea level trends continue, many residents of these island nations plan to flee to neighboring countries, creating a subsequent refugee crisis for which many governments remain woefully underprepared.
Figure 2: Map of the Pacific Island region
interannual sea level trend (linear variation with time) from the reconstruction 1950 - 2009.
Finds a MASLT is about 1 mm / yr in global sea level reconstructions that is more than half of the total observed
sea level trend during the XXth century