Forster and Gregory (2006) estimate ECS based on radiation budget data from the ERBE combined
with surface temperature observations based on a regression approach, using the observation that there was little change in aerosol forcing over that time.
In the opinion of the panel, the warming trend in global -
mean surface temperature observations during the past 20 years is undoubtedly real and is substantially greater than the average rate of warming during the twentieth century.
Also, they used sea
surface temperature observation data from Britain's weather and climate data organization, the UK Met Office's Hadley Center and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), ocean reanalysis data from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at NOAA, and atmospheric reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium - Range Weather Forecasting and NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction for that 30 - year period.
According to that chart of actual satellite and
surface temperature observations vs. what was predicted by 90 different climate models, 95 percent of models overestimated... C3: Climate Model — Charts / Graphs C3 Headlines» climate - model - chartsgraphs
Global average temperature The mean surface temperature of the Earth measured from three main sources: satellites, monthly readings from a network of over 3,000
surface temperature observation stations and sea surface temperature measurements taken mainly from the fleet of merchant ships, naval ships and data buoys.
Drew Shindell, a climatologist at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, found Earth is likely to experience roughly 20 percent more warming than estimates that were largely based
on surface temperature observations during the past 150 years.
Unlike the satellite temperature record, where only a few satellites are measuring temperatures at any given point of time, there is a large amount of redundancy in
surface temperature observations, with multiple
Unlike the satellite temperature record, where only a few satellites are measuring temperatures at any given point of time, there is a large amount of redundancy in
surface temperature observations, with multiple independent sets of data producing consistent results.
Most proxy - only reconstructions show the mid-20th century (not late) to be the warmest period — which we know, according to
surface temperature observations, is incorrect.
So, in looking at the chart, I note that the orange line (HadISST) is based on sea -
surface temperature observations, while the three other lines are (various GISS - E2 - R runs) are land - and - sea model outputs.
This agreement is accomplished through each modeling group selecting the forcing data set that produces the best agreement with observations, along with model kludges that include adjusting the aerosol forcing to produce good agreement with
the surface temperature observations.
It does so in chapters on
Surface Temperature Observations, MSU Observations, and Radiosonde Observations.
The dataset is presented as an ensemble of 100 dataset realisations that sample the distribution of uncertainty in the global temperature record given current understanding of non-climatic factors affecting near -
surface temperature observations.
Once the error was noted, the satellite temperature trend showed global warming consistent with
the surface temperature observations.
There have been a number of new papers that use recent atmospheric, ocean, and
surface temperature observations to argue that climate sensitivity may be lower than previously estimated (e.g. closer to 2 C than 4 C).
Science 2007) we take a much simpler approach — using only sea -
surface temperature observations — to drive the ocean towards the observed state.
University of Washington researcher Eric Steig and colleagues used satellite and
surface temperature observations to show a strong correlation between warmer temperatures in Antarctica and sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean.