But the new work shows no clear change in the overall numbers of such storms when run on future climates predicted
using global climate models.
What is more, there are concerns that such damages may increase in the future if temperatures rise as predicted
by global climate models in response to CO2 - induced global warming.
We use a suite of
global climate model simulations for the 20th Century to assess the contribution of solar forcing to the past trends in the global mean temperature.
Because
global climate models predict critical sea ice habitat will disappear as CO2 concentrations rise, they argue the seals are ultimately endangered.
Why it matters:
Current global climate models used to predict climate change account for large - scale climate processes, typically at scales greater than 100 kilometers, or about 62 miles.
Global Climate Models show this variability in the long term but are not able to predict exactly when such variations will happen.
Therefore, this oxidation pathway — which is currently included in only one of the 12
major global climate models — will have a significant impact on assessments of current and future climate.
The new analysis looked at results from three of the more than 20
comprehensive global climate models, which were selected because they most accurately matched actual weather data from the South Asian region.
Next the team would like to improve
how global climate models account for clouds and interactions with aerosols from sources such as power plants, vehicles, deserts and oceans.
To reach further back in time and provide a long - term record that can
inform global climate models, scientists are turning to other means of measuring ice mass.
Global climate models tend to give roughly similar estimates for the climate sensitivity, but there is nevertheless a spread between the different model estimates.
How the climate will change in the future is largely based on results
from Global Climate Models; however, work on climate adaptation at regional and local levels requires much more detailed information.
These results indicate that the cloud changes most consistently predicted
by global climate models are currently occurring in nature.
Using global climate models, the researchers in the new study mapped current and projected future «wet bulb» temperatures, which reflect the combined effects of heat and humidity.