Results from real - data simulations and forecasts strongly suggested the potential of
improving hurricane prediction with a comprehensive three - dimensional model.
Knutson, T.R., and R.E. Tuleya, 1999: Increased hurricane intensities with CO2 - induced global warming as simulated using the
GFDL hurricane prediction system.
Lou St. Laurent at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts, who uses identical technology in his own work, says the gliders will help fill a hole
in hurricane prediction science.
Regardless of the root cause, though, the discovery of the central Pacific hot spot should lead to
better hurricane predictions and fewer surprises.
By working on the still - not - fully - cracked nut of estimating changes in hurricane frequency and intensity in a warming climate, Gabe and his colleagues ended up with a modeling system with seasonal skill in
regional hurricane prediction.
The Sarasota Herald - Tribune's investigative piece tells the story of how an entity that
provides hurricane predictions to the insurance industry came up with a new approach to hurricane forecasting following an informal four - hour discussion involving four experts.
Regarding the referenced North Atlantic 2010
hurricane predictions calling for above average activity, the 2009 North Atlantic ACE Index was 52, less than 1/2 of normal.
This was done by «telescoping - in» on coarsely resolved tropical storms in GFDL's global climate model using the high - resolution GFDL
hurricane prediction model (Figure 12).
Approximately 1300 five - day idealized simulations are performed using a higher - resolution version of the GFDL
hurricane prediction system (grid spacing as fine as 9 km, with 42 levels).»
Meanwhile, sophisticated new weather models — such as one based on sea surface temperatures, developed by researchers at Florida State University — are bringing remarkable improvements
in hurricane prediction.
Among those in attendance was Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University who now does much of the research for Bill Gray's
seasonal hurricane predictions, the oldest and best - known annual forecast.
Since becoming operational in 1995, the GFDL hurricane model has played a major role in
improving hurricane prediction, resulting in a significant reduction in track forecast error.
Since 1995, the
GFDL Hurricane Prediction System has been used operationally by the National Hurricane Center and has consistently been one of the top - performing models utilized by NHC.
Maybe we'll get it when we can't get our satellite television and our telecommunications, our global weather reports and
hurricane predictions.
Today's Sarasota Herald - Tribune reports that while Risk Management Solutions (RMS),
the hurricane prediction company, said its new mathematical formula represented a «scientific consensus» the reality «was quite different.»
The hurricane predictions are based on computer models, historical storms, and data on global sea - surface temperatures, atmospheric conditions and other factors.
Seems
that hurricane prediction is as difficult as weather and climate prediction...
In a series of Atlantic basin - specific dynamical downscaling studies (Bender et al. 2010; Knutson et al. 2013), we attempted to address both of these limitations by letting the Atlantic basin regional model of Knutson et al. (2008) provide the overall storm frequency information, and then downscaling each individual storm from the regional model study into the GFDL
hurricane prediction system.
The Hurricane Prediction System forecasts the movement and intensity of hurricanes, while global and regional climate models simulate the influence on hurricane activity of various atmospheric and oceanic processes, including climate change and variability.
Dude didn't even mention climate change; it was all about dissing NOAA's
hurricane predictions.
To mark the anniversary and assess progress in
hurricane prediction, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami assembled a panel of scientists who were active then and now.
Current 2011
Hurricane Predictions for the Atlantic NOAA predicts a 70 % chance of 12 to 18 named storms, including 6 to 10 hurricanes.