I pointed out that I perceived two periods of warming and two periods
of pause in warming during that period.
Since the ocean surface is has
also paused in warming, either short wave solar radiation is warming the ocean, or the deep ocean is not warming.
Their effects have combined to cause the
apparent pause in warming at the beginning of the 21st century, known as the warming «hiatus.»
If a person can not detect a rather precise pattern of warming and
pause in warming in the Global temperature record starting in 1880 I can only say that to me the pattern is obvious.
When ocean patterns had some scientists in 2008 projecting a
protected pause in warming, I wrote a relevant piece entitled «Can Climate Campaigns Withstand a Cooling Test?»
While the AMO has not changed much in the past 10 years, the strong increase in North Atlantic temperatures between 1970 and 2000 may have contributed to the rapid rise in global temperatures over that period, and the leveling - out of the AMO may help make the
observed pause in warming more likely.
This excerpt (my italics) explains why a
recent pause in warming of sea surface temperatures (SST) can hide important deeper processes:
If opposed forcings caused
the pauses in warming then, again, why such a patterned occurence?
There is no longer any evidence of
a pause in warming through present in any of the land surface temperature records.
We've had
a pause in warming & NASA corrupted data, says Malcolm Roberts.
So if you just took the relative change since 1999, not the absolute numbers as compared to the red curve, their new model would predict the same warming as a standard scenario run (i.e. the black one), which would hardly have been a reason to go to the worldwide media with a «
pause in warming» prediction.
Based upon early drafts of the AR5, the IPCC seemed prepared to dismiss
the pause in warming as irrelevant «noise» associated with natural variability.
Her main candidate for
the pause in warming is natural variability (El Nino / La Nina, for example) which would reduce attribution of warming to greenhouse gasses.
This NOAA chart showed that the mid-century
pause in warming was not just a pause but an actual cooling that lasted from 1940 to 1970.
-- that the last decade, which passed without warming, was just «
a pause in warming.»
For example, their long effort to hide climate scientists» work about
the pause in warming of their atmosphere since roughly 2000.
If half
the pause in warming is natural then about half the rise in warming was probably natural.