«Satellite data reveal unusually low
Arctic sea ice coverage during the summer of 2007, caused in part by anomalously high temperatures and southerly winds.»
Progress in understanding this connection has converged on two key factors: (1) the variability of autumn snow cover in Eurasia, and (2) the variability
of sea ice coverage in the Barents - Kara Sea during late fall and early winter.
Figure 7: Average
Antarctic sea ice coverage during September 2017, with average September sea ice extent from 1981 - 2010 indicated in pink.
If you'll recall from my previous post, polar bears seem to have barely survived the extensive
sea ice coverage during the Last Glacial Maximum — in other words, too much ice (even over the short term) is their biggest threat.
In a February report, Dr. Parkinson said, «If trends toward shortened sea ice seasons and
lesser sea ice coverage continue, this could entail major consequences to the polar and perhaps global climate, and to the lifestyles and survivability of selected Arctic plant and animal species.»
Not only was there
maximum sea ice coverage, but also the drop in sea level left the shallow shelves of the Arctic Seas high and dry.
For Antarctica, the lowest maximum extent, recorded on September 12, follows a record low
minimum sea ice coverage recorded on March 1 after the summer thaw, he said.
«We are expanding our reach to the Eurasian sector of the Arctic, so we're hopefully going to get
more sea ice coverage than we ever have.»
NASA satellites have seen the minimum summertime
sea ice coverage decline by 13 percent over the last three decades, along with a decline in sea ice thickness.
The Antarctic was also on thin ice, with the sixth smallest February
sea ice coverage on the record.
Arctic
sea ice coverage continued its below - average trend this year as the ice declined to its annual minimum on Sept. 17, according to the NASA - supported National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado, Boulder.
Negative delta C - 13 (as) values in glacial AABW were likely caused by poor ventilation during formation, probably associated with
extensive sea ice coverage.
Snow and
sea ice coverage from a Sturtian (~ 715 Mya) «Snowball Earth» simulation by the GISS climate model.
So if there is
sea ice coverage for any part of the year, GISS will not use SST values to cover those cells for the entire year.
Drawing on Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Temperature data from 1953 to 1978 and the National Snow and Ice Data Center's Sea Ice Index from 1979 to 2015, the researchers computed 30 - year running averages of
September sea ice coverage — that is, they computed averages for the years 1953 — 83, 1954 — 84, 1955 — 85, and so on.
Images recovered from 50 - year - old Nimbus environmental satellites show record
high sea ice coverage around Antarctica in 1964
Calling the results the «cascading effects of climate change,» the team of European researchers found that over the course of the past 10 years, dramatic increases in summertime nest predation correlated with
diminishing sea ice coverage in the Arctic Ocean.
But a new model looks at other factors, including how individual penguins deal with climate change by migrating to places with
optimal sea ice coverage.
Qualitative indicators
like sea ice coverage, spring thaw dates, and melting permafrost provide strong additional evidence that trends have been positive at middle and high northern latitudes, while glacier retreat suggests warming aloft at lower latitudes.
I've already pointed you to data for Arctic
sea ice coverage which contradicts the claim that ice cover was anywhere near as low as today.
Figuring out when those consequences will arrive is tricky, since climate models often disagree on
how sea ice coverage — in particular, coverage at its September nadir — will change in years to come.
A new paper by Polyakov, Kwok and Walsh is in press in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, entitled: «Recent changes in arctic
multi-year sea ice coverage and likely causes.»
The report, led by scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, also found that maximum
winter sea ice coverage in the Arctic was the smallest ever recorded.
«There's only about half as
much sea ice coverage in the Arctic now as there was only 30 years ago,» Francis says.
However, scientists have cautioned that while Arctic
sea ice coverage expanded this year, one year is not enough to say the global warming has stopped.
But he said that he was able to confirm that the
combined sea ice coverage in Arctic and Antarctic are indeed at record lows.
The Statement also highlighted that long - term indicators of climate change such as increasing carbon dioxide concentrations, sea level rise and ocean acidification continue «unabated», with Arctic
sea ice coverage remaining below average and the previously stable Antarctic sea ice extent at or near a record low.
Sunday's Arctic
sea ice coverage also beats the previous record of 1.61 million square miles set in mid-September 2007.
Reconstruction of millennial changes in dust emission, transport and regional
sea ice coverage using the deep EPICA ice cores fromthe Atlantic and Indian Ocean sector of Antarctica.
To better understand the uncertainties, we evaluated sensitivities of
summer sea ice coverage to global warming forcing in models and observations... The projected ice - free summer Arctic Ocean may occur as early as in the late 2030s using a criterion of 80 % SIA loss and the Arctic regional mean surface air temperature will be likely increased by 8.5 ± 2.5 °C in winter and 3.7 ± 0.9 °C in summer by the end of this century.