Sentences with phrase «warming estimates»

An assessment of the primary sources of spread of global warming estimates from coupled atmosphere — ocean models.

In fact, there is an accumulating body of reviewed, published research shaving away the high end of the range of possible warming estimates from doubled carbon dioxide levels.

When one flaw is fixed, they say, the analysis produces a much warmer estimate of future climate.

This method yields an average warming estimate of just 1.5 - 2 degrees C for doubling CO2.

We first thought that the disagreement must be down to the sea surface temperature (SST) data, because the Met Office had recently corrected a bias in their ocean warming estimates of about the right size.

e.g. if someone found a very large negative feedback then the abstract would put it in context in terms of climate sensitivity or impact on warming estimates, as the abstract is supposed to provide background.

(such version is able to claim being scientific, even while contradicting rather moderate warming estimates based on IPCC consensus)

Velders says his team came up with higher warming estimates than IPCC because their model accounts for trends that others don't, such as the faster - than expected adoption of HFCs driven by the Montreal Protocol, and an air - conditioning boom in the developing world.

Second, since warming estimates vary as a function of the GMST data products chosen (Table 2), we propose to estimate trends on the annual averages of all five data products.

When recalibrated on real 1959 - 2012 plus fake 2013 - 2027 data, assuming nearly flat surface temperatures for 2013 - 2027 (just like 1998 - 2012), the result is that the 21st century warming estimate goes from about 2.74 deg C (4.93 deg F) to 1.86 deg C (3.35 deg F).

However, the combined evidence of the influence of natural variability on the unforced temperature estimate, the disagreement between different observational datasets on warming level, and the uncertainty introduced by an uncertain pre-industrial temperature baseline means that we can't be confident as the Millar paper suggests on what the current level of warming is, and that the balance of evidence suggests that the Otto warming estimate may be biased cold.

The relatively low warming estimate from 1851 to 2010 in the Gillett study appears to influence their TCR results.

Using instead the 4.0 + / -0.8 C warming estimate from the Annan and Hargreaves (2013; doi: 10.5194 / cp -9-367-2013) global reconstruction of temperature changes at the LGM implies an even lower ECS best estimate, of 1.56 C.

Thus, although poor station quality might affect absolute temperature, it does not appear to affect trends, and for global warming estimates, the trend is what is important

Forest et al. (2006) demonstrate that the inclusion of natural forcing affects the estimated PDF of climate sensitivity since net negative natural forcing in the second half of the 20th century favours higher sensitivities than earlier results that disregarded natural forcing (Forest et al., 2002; see Figure 9.20), particularly if the same ocean warming estimates were used.

Using those global - warming estimates, the researchers projected health trends by the end of the century.

None of the warming estimates from thawing permafrost are in the latest reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

The issue of Urban Heat is duscussed at length in the book, and one of Crichton's main points is that the UHIE is a known issue that is factored into global warming estimates.

It is no surprise there is significant disagreement over the amount of warming estimated — as James Hansen and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies explain7, there is no clear definition of what we mean by absolute surface air temperature and wide variation in the estimated mean surface temperature of the planet.

A lack of data and continuing uncertainty over the role of clouds is to blame for the confusion about warming estimates, said Ivy Tan, a graduate student at Yale who worked on the research with academics from Yale and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

It also found that fewer clouds will change to a heat - reflecting state in the future — due to CO2 increases — than previously thought, meaning that warming estimates will have to be raised.

A decline in ocean cloud cover projected in climate models points to more than 5.6 °F (3 °C) of global warming coming in this century, on the high end of past global warming estimates, warn climate scientists in a new study.

By neglecting this, Broecker overestimated the warming at any given time; accounting for thermal inertia would have reduced his warming estimate by about a third (see AR4 Fig.