Sentences with phrase «uncertainty range»

The result is that temperatures in recent decades exceed the maximum proxy estimate (including uncertainty range) for the past 1,300 years.

Better simulation of the past two decades, and in due course the upcoming one, would reduce uncertainty ranges and improve the confidence level of our projections of greenhouse gases.

The entire recession of the ice stream will still take centuries, but this is very difficult to model and there are huge uncertainty ranges with many unknown parameters.

We should debate rational policy in the light of known facts, known uncertainty ranges, and plausible risks.

Bottom row of AR4 Figure 10.26 showing uncertainty ranges for GLB temperature for six SRES scenarios.

A new study from North Carolina State University sheds light on how some collegiate student - athletes deal with uncertainties ranging from excelling in both school and sports to their career prospects outside of athletics, and urges university athletic programs to adopt new efforts to support student - athletes.

«The three papers come to perhaps different numbers, but we're all within uncertainty ranges, well within them, and lends confidence to the statement that there was a significant human influence on the amount of precipitation that was produced by Hurricane Harvey,» he said.

Coloured bars show uncertainty ranges on observationally - constrained projections, derived by scaling projected GHG - and OTH - induced temperature changes using the 1851 — 2010 (solid) and 1901 — 2000 (dotted) GHG and OTH regression coefficients.

Using the observational aerosol forcing error estimate given in Section 7.5.3 instead of the corresponding Table 8.7 uncertainty range gives the same result.

Vertical lines show uncertainty range of each projection at three points during the century.

The GCP reports that China's emissions are projected to grow by 3.5 % in 2017, with wide uncertainty ranging from 0.7 % to 5.4 %.

Forest et al. (2002, 2006) obtained narrower uncertainty ranges when using expert prior distributions (Table 9.3).

There are large emissions from deforestation and other land - use change activities in the tropics; these have been estimated in IPCC (2007a) for the 1990s to have been 5.9 GtCO2 - eq, with a large uncertainty range of 1.8 — 9.9 GtCO2 - eq (Denman et al., 2007).

For total aerosol forcing using the AR4 uncertainty ranges for individual components, the 90 % confidence range, by quadrature, is ± 0.86 W / m2 (see Table 4).

The estimated uncertainty range of TCR is critical for the result, but that range has also been justified better than describing it as a purely subjective judgment of those who participate in writing the report.

Terry: As far as I know you can recreate the IPCC uncertainty range for a response to CO2 doubling by using a simple energy balance model.

In the annotated version shown below, I've plotted the AR4 Figure 10.26 A1B uncertainty range in yellow.

Up to about 1970, the new reconstruction of Hay et al. runs at the top of the existing uncertainty range.

We investigate the sensitivity of our results to uncertainties in the prescribed CO2 and orographic changes, to derive uncertainty ranges for the various contributing processes.

By 2300, the central estimates of extra warming were more variable, and ranged from 0.13 to 1.69 °C when full uncertainty ranges were taken into account.

Since the values given are stated to be «mean and 95 % confidence intervals», I can not see any justification for the efficacy uncertainty ranges actually being 95 % confidence intervals for a single run, centered on the mean efficacy calculated over all runs.

While the summary focuses on median and quartile values from the entire set of contributions, it is important to recall that may individual estimates specify rather broad uncertainty ranges.

It may cope with monotonicity better than the basic objective Bayesian method I have set out, particularly where that leads to non-contiguous uncertainty ranges.

Our formal uncertainty range doesn't take account of the possibility that someone might come along in a few years and decide that these proxy data are all misinterpreted or hugely biased.

Note that Santer et al. 2011 and Thorne et al. 2011 both showed that the satellite temperature trends (also plotted in Christy's Figure 2.1, but which are not directly comparable to surface temperatures) also fall within the model uncertainty range, which Christy neglects to mention.

The advantage of using an objective Bayesian method with Jeffreys» prior, or the SRLR method, is that you get uncertainty ranges with excellent coverage (probability matching) whatever the (unknown) true characteristics of the process that generated the sample are.

The global warming alarmism is overblown and there is no justification in any physical data for the IPCC Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity uncertainty range as high as 4.5 deg C. Moreover, Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity is not well - suited for predicting near - term temperature trends of the earth for the next 100 - 200 years.

Uncertainty in aerosol forcing is the dominant contribution to the ECS and TCR uncertainty ranges.

«This is one of several recent studies that provide sobering evidence that earth's climate sensitivity may lie in the upper end of the current uncertainty range,» Mann said in an email.