Another source of uncertainty comes from the
direct effect of aerosols from human origins: How much do they reflect and absorb sunlight directly as particles?
The direct and indirect
radiative effects of aerosols suspended in the atmosphere above clouds (ACA) are a highly uncertain component of both regional and global climate.
Here, in part I, I'll review some of the basic processes that are important in determining the
climate effects of aerosols, focusing in particular on their formation.
Interactive aerosol modules have been incorporated into some models, and through these, the direct and the
indirect effects of aerosols are now more widely included.
This is because the net warming it reports includes the cooling
effects of aerosols which partly masks the warming caused by greenhouse gases.
Myhre, G., N. Bellouin, T.F. Berglen, T.K. Berntsen, O. Boucher, A. Grini, I.S.A. Isaksen, M. Johnsrud, M.I. Mishchenko, F. Stordal, and D. Tanre, 2007: Comparison of the radiative properties and direct radiative
effect of aerosols from a global aerosol model and remote sensing data over ocean.
«Tiny particles have outsize impact on storm clouds, precipitation: Amazon rainforest provides a unique natural lab to
study effects of aerosols.»
The largest uncertainty in that comparison comes from the
estimated effects of aerosols in the atmosphere, which can variously shade Earth or warm it.
In other words, thanks to air quality regulations implemented in Europe, part of the
masking effect of aerosol particles has been reduced, revealing the true warming of the Arctic by greenhouse gases,» says Annica Ekman, Professor at the Department of Meteorology (MISU) and Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University who also co-authored this study.
«Scientists have talked about Arctic melting and albedo decrease for nearly 50 years,» said Ramanathan, a distinguished professor of climate and atmospheric sciences at Scripps who has previously conducted similar research on the global
dimming effects of aerosols.
Unfortunately, mean temperatures have risen much further when account is taken of the short - term masking
effect of aerosols emitted from coal and oil, mainly sulphur dioxide and its oxidized products... «Thus, according to -LSB-...]
Fan went to China in 2008 for an ARM Mobile Facility field campaign studying the
climatic effects of aerosols in that country's fast - changing atmosphere.
The PNNL - MMF is a more physically based way to represent the indirect
effects of aerosols compared to parameterization, typically used to represent small - scale climate details in global models.
Held and collaborators (PNAS 2006) have implicated the
joint effect of aerosols and greenhouse gases in the trend towards Sahel drought, and generally there are issues in what inhomogeneous aerosol forcing might do to things like the North Atlantic Oscillation.
The leveling off between the 1940s and 1970s may be explained by natural variability and possibly by cooling
effects of aerosols generated by the rapid economic growth after World War II.
We don't have very good measurements of this effect; unfortunately the rocket carrying NASA's Glory satellite that had instruments to measure the climate
effect of aerosols crashed two years ago.
If analysis of historical data on GHG rise and net
effects of aerosols establishes beta = 0.5, then TCR = 1.2 C. But, beta is uncertain and might be as low as 0.4, in which case TCR = 1.3 C. But, TCR (1 + beta) = 1.8 C and only has uncertainty introduced by uncertainty in the historical GMST and CO2 level rise.
The cooling
effect of aerosols never materialized but the warming effect of CO2 has steadily risen since Robock's simple model runs.
Then, after giving a talk to the Bush - Cheney White House, he agonized about whether he should have ignored the cooling
effects of aerosols because it gave Cheney an «out,» enabling him and others to make the specious argument that aerosols somehow balance out the trillions of tons of CO2 emitted every year.
So even though environmentally friendly laws have successfully reversed the trend of ozone depletion, the
lingering effects of aerosol use, and the link between the ozone hole and global warming, virtually ensure that this problem will persist until the end of the century.