The phrase
"emissions trajectory" refers to the path or direction in which the amount of harmful gases or pollutants released into the atmosphere is heading. It is often used to describe whether emissions are increasing, decreasing, or staying the same over time.
Full definition
How would the
resulting emissions trajectory compare with the trajectory that is likely to be set by policy - makers as part of a purely cap - and - trade approach?
The subsequent sections discuss CH4
emission trajectories for individual scenario families, with sectoral and regional patterns described on the basis of the output of marker scenarios.
Collectively, the studies make it clear that the INDCs make a substantial contribution to bending the
global emissions trajectory below our current path.
In 2030 macro-economic costs for multi-gas mitigation, consistent
with emissions trajectories towards stabilization between 445 and 710 ppm CO2 - eq, are estimated at between a 3 % decrease of global GDP and a small increase, compared to the baseline (see Table SPM.4).
From the Climate Change Authority, of which I was a Member until recently, here's a set of
emissions trajectories consistent with a 67 per cent probability of limiting warming to 2 degrees.
In Stefan's words: «Once an overall long - term goal has been defined, it is a matter of science to determine
what emissions trajectories are compatible...» By separating the decision on «long - term» goal from the «matter of science» to turn the crank and determine trajectories misunderstands how real goals function in nearly every area of complex and expensive policy coordination.
Rather than have long - term emissions stay around 2030 levels, however, Lomborg assumes that countries continue on a near business - as -
usual emission trajectory after 2030.
This fact sheet provides context for the U.S. GHG reduction targets and a synthesis of WRI and other scenarios that present possible
GHG emissions trajectories for the U.S., given various assumptions.
Collectively, the studies make it clear that the INDCs will substantially bend the global
emissions trajectory below our current path, but still don't go far enough to limit warming to below 2 °C and avoid some of the worst climate impacts.
Their finding that an effective CER price of 20 US$ / tCO2 from 2006 onwards could drive a radical switch of investment from new coal plants and primarily to natural gas and renewables in the three Asian countries studied would not only represent a large saving in CO2 emission, but a totally different capital endowment that would sustain far lower
emission trajectories after 2030.
Now research using a coupled model of human behaviour and climate finds that individual behaviour can significantly
alter emissions trajectories and global temperature.
Reduction in air pollution because of low -
carbon emission trajectories is shown to result in approximately 150 million fewer premature deaths worldwide.
Relative to the AEO2015 Reference case, the
projected emissions trajectory is somewhat lower in the High Oil and Gas Resource case baseline, which has cheaper natural gas, and somewhat higher in the High Economic Growth case, which has higher electricity use.
We can clarify the nature of
emission trajectories further by picking a carbon budget and examining the required trajectories as a function of the time when we commence mitigation.
EPA's proposal is remarkable given the relative paralysis on climate action in Washington, but it would not budge the world's ever -
rising emissions trajectory.
In using the model to assess the ocean - carbon sink, the researchers assumed a «business as usual» carbon
dioxide emissions trajectory, the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario found in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for 2006 - 2010, where emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century.
[AR: I keep hearing, again and again, that China simply will not budge from its growth, coal, and
emissions trajectories without help — meaning money — from countries, like the United States, that have built their own economies on fossil fuels for a century or two.
I had a recent phone chat with Susan Solomon of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration about the CO2 challenge in the face of
emissions trajectories like those in the oil companies» reports.
In policy circles, including popular calculations of
emissions trajectories necessary to avoid a high chance of exceeding 2 degrees C. of warming, the hot tail has not been trimmed (unless I'm missing something?).
So Dr. Yohe and his intellectual brethren argue that it is wise policy to
blunt emissions trajectories to trim the dangerous tail off the long curve on a chart of climate risk.
(My issue with carbon pricing is simply the lack of evidence that anyone, anywhere, is willing to set a price that would meaningfully
influence emissions trajectories.)
Each RCP contains the same categories of data, but the values vary a great deal, reflecting different
emission trajectories over time as determined by the underlying socio - economic assumptions (which are unique to each RCP).
This small but increasingly vocal minority of the country understands what we're up against, and knows it will take an economic (if not political) revolution in order to bend the global greenhouse gas
emissions trajectory fast enough to avoid locking in dangerous, irreversible, planetary - scale change.