If taken into account, it may be seen that they will slow the process as far
as ocean surface temperature goes, and hence general air temperature.
So it seems like it might be a mistake to get into a box by predicting imminent surface temperature increase, or
even ocean surface temperature increase.
The variability in
ocean surface temperature year to year, decade to decade, century to century result in persistent regimes of droughts and floods at many scales and with irregular beats.
The new finding of the importance of multiple
ocean surface temperature changes to the multi-decadal global warming accelerations and slowdowns is supported by a set of computer modeling experiments, in which observed sea surface temperature changes are specified in individual ocean basins, separately.
The globally averaged combined land and
ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend show a warming of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06] °C over the period 1880 to 2012
Also, the most intense hurricanes and typhoons in the tropics are likely to increase under future warming because they're driven by
rising ocean surface temperatures.
England et al. suggest that the recent
Pacific Ocean surface temperature anomalies are related to a strengthening of Pacific trade winds in the past two decades, and that warming is likely to accelerate as the trade wind anomaly abates.
It is the net impact of
multiple ocean surface temperature changes, rather than a single ocean basin change, that plays a main driver for the multi-decadal global warming accelerations and slowdowns.
Across the oceans, the average global
ocean surface temperature during November 2017 was 0.62 °C (1.12 °F) above the 20th century average of 15.8 °C (60.4 °F)-- the fourth highest November temperature in the 138 - year record.
In the September's issue of the journal Science, Peter Webster and Judith Curry documented a 60 percent global jump in major hurricanes with winds of 131 mph or more and a 1 - degree increase in the
tropical ocean surface temperature.
ENSO events, for example, can warm or cool
ocean surface temperatures through exchange of heat between the surface and the reservoir stored beneath the oceanic mixed layer, and by changing the distribution and extent of cloud cover (which influences the radiative balance in the lower atmosphere).
Changes in
ocean surface temperatures caused by El Niño significantly affect where cumulonimbus clouds form in the ITCZ and, therefore, the geographic structure of the Hadley cell.