The exact date and value of the
minimum sea ice extent in 2017 can only be determined in the coming weeks, after a significant increase.
The 2008 arctic
summer sea ice extent minimum nearly matched the drastic reduction in minimum extent observed in 2007.
Nearly all models to date project a slight decline in
sea ice extent at present and for the next several decades.
So that's what we can expect: big losses in sea ice area, and perhaps in
sea ice extent as well (with a lag).
2016 tied 2007 as the year with the second smallest summer
sea ice extent since record - keeping began in 1979.
The decrease has been greatest during summer,
with sea ice extent reducing by around 12 % per decade since the satellite record began in 1979.
It is also noteworthy that
winter sea ice extent in individual years is not well correlated with subsequent ice melts and the resulting summer minimum.
Added to this is the concern that summer
sea ice extent reached a minimum in 2007 and has actually been increasing since then.
Further, it only took one month of persistent wind conditions to slow the rate of sea ice loss, resulting in an increase in 2009
sea ice extent compared to 2007 and 2008.
The well - predicted years turn out to be those in
which sea ice extent lies close to its long - term downward trend.
I view the question of whether the minimum
sea ice extent sets a new record this year as secondary.
The ice age product is based on a 15 % sea ice concentration threshold to be consistent with the threshold used for mapping
overall sea ice extent.
However, scientists have used historical records of sea ice conditions to estimate
sea ice extent before 1979.
What researchers have found hasn't been encouraging, at least for polar bears:
summertime sea ice extent in 2007 fell half below average for the past three decades.
Moreover, the spring melt is now proceeding very rapidly with
sea ice extent already below last's year level on this date and identical to that of 2008.
This work concerns only
sea ice extent without considerations of the age, thickness, and total volume of sea ice.
First, there is no point in the past 150 years
where sea ice extent is as small as it has been in recent years.
However, a large percentage increase in a small number may not amount to a meaningful increase;
sea ice extent currently remains well below the 1981 to 2010 average.
• How are the mechanisms
controlling sea ice extent and volume changing and how are they related to changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns in lower latitudes?
Phrases with «sea ice extent»