The phrase
"public bettors" refers to people in the general public who place bets or wager on certain outcomes, typically in sports. They are referred to as "public" because they are not professionals or experts in the field of gambling, and their bets are usually influenced by popular opinion or personal preferences rather than statistics or careful analysis.
Full definition
During the regular season we typically see a majority
of public bettors taking the favorite, but that trend is typically turned on its head during the playoffs.
The table below displays how visiting teams have performed when they are not being backed
by public bettors.
Both clubs have been playing well over the last couple matches, but I'm still surprised to see
public bettors taking a side in this one.
It's been a solid start
for public bettors this season — teams closing with at least 70 % of tickets have gone 67 - 50 ATS.
It's also important to understand that
public bettors love taking favorites, which has historically created value on underdogs.
Using our bet and money percentage data, let's take a look at the three games that have generated the most action
from public bettors tonight.
Their resurgence has
public bettors on their side and it's been a good strategy to follow them.
Many
public bettors like the idea of picking a winner and will avoid taking the draw even if there's value on it.
It's extremely rare to find the majority of
public bettors backing the underdog, but that's exactly what's happening in this matchup.
Using our proprietary betting and money percentage data, we've broken down three of today's most popular plays
among public bettors.
Though
public bettors seem to be pounding the hometown Heat, sharp money is coming in on the Kings and pushing the line down.
With public bettors loading up on teams that they probably shouldn't be, value is created on the other side.
As you can see by the table, publicly bet teams were a losing proposition, which is
why public bettors tend to lose in the long run.
Public bettors tend to overlook draws in general, but even more so in final matches since they like to pick a side to win straight up.
Top - 25 rankings are just based off of the opinions of a group of people, but
public bettors often take them too seriously.
It's worth noting that
public bettors overwhelmingly like taking favorites, which explains why most of our contrarian strategies focusing on underdogs.
That number includes both regular season and postseason games; although the percentage was slightly lower during playoffs
when public bettors are increasingly willing to take underdogs.
With the influx of
public bettors around the market, it's generally a good idea to fade these «trendy» picks.
This is because books are going to shade those lines because they
know public bettors will be on them.
Public bettors along with big, sharp money are willing to take the best team in the country despite the short price.
Over the past two weeks, we have examined the concept of fading the trendy underdog and backing favorites that are being widely ignored
by public bettors.
It's possible these betting trends change before tip - off, but it's fascinating to see one of the nation's top teams receiving such limited support
from public bettors.
But what happens in the rare instances where the majority
of public bettors are taking the underdog?
Public bettors often back top - ranked teams following this type of loss using a «bounce back» theory.
It's incredibly rare to see such a high percentage of bettors pounding the under as past research indicates that
public bettors overwhelmingly favor the over.
While
public bettors hammer McGregor at an unprecedented rate, sharp bettors are sitting back and waiting to jump on Mayweather when the line «bottoms out.»
Public bettors don't care if Golden State is -13 or -14, but these inflated lines can create value on the other side.
While public bettors appear to be taking the morning off, wiseguys are right back at it pounding soft numbers.
Through nine games, Dallas has received the majority of public action eight times, with Week 5 against Green Bay the only instance
where public bettors preferred their opponent.
Why the public will love Oklahoma City: With their starpower, the Thunder, like the Celtics,
attract public bettors on most nights.
Considering the Predators outshot the Penguins 26 - 12 in Game 1 (and held Pittsburgh without a shot for a 37 - minute stretch) it's not entirely surprising to
see public bettors hammering Nashville this evening, however, it's interesting to see that sharp bettors also like the road «dog.
Everton / West Brom is a great example this week where
most public bettors see a line of Everton +160 and get sucked in.
NFL favorites have gone 9 -3-1 so far in Week 15, leaving
public bettors feeling prettay, prettay, prettay good.
This is unfortunate for sportsbooks
since public bettors love taking Tiger, but now those bets have been refunded.
With
public bettors cashing in both games, William Hill's Nevada sportsbooks actually suffered the worst single - day loss in their history.
This is the most bet game of the day
so public bettors will be loading up on UGA — possibly a good spot to go contrarian and take the Vols.
This is
because public bettors begin to give up on them too early and take the other side, creating value on these underachievers.
We will continue to monitor these lines and trends, and it will be interesting to see
whether public bettors continue to take the Bears.
No game has come close to this type of line movement, and there could be some value on the Dolphins created from
public bettors pounding the home favorite.
Despite the win and cover,
public bettors still don't have faith in LSU this weekend as they're getting just 13 % of spread bets at home against Auburn.
NC State vs. Louisville: Most
public bettors thought the opener of Louisville -1 was too low, and they're now up to -3.5 / -4 around the market.
Juventus at that price does seem like good value, but with
public bettors flocking to them, I think that the value is actually on Barcelona right now.